tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post4388317764264221713..comments2024-03-27T11:18:34.222-03:00Comments on Viable Opposition: Food Prices and Population Growth - Is Malthus Being Proven Correct?A Political Junkiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-1852019295856396902011-05-08T06:46:02.175-03:002011-05-08T06:46:02.175-03:00Malthus overlooked a whole lot of things with his ...Malthus overlooked a whole lot of things with his simplistic comparison of geometric vs arithmetic progressions. Not surprising as at this stage of history people still believed in God, that the world was created by Him in 7 days, and that the earth was flat. With the benefit of modern science and hindsight how anachronistic both of those seem now!<br /><br />According to basic economic theory, food production (the same as production of any commodity) can be defined as the result of a combination of labour, and the resources of land and capital. By definition, if the population grows by a geometric factor, so does the amount of labour available for food production.<br /><br />So then the biggest factor we need to look at is the ratio of (scarce) resources to labour. However the other factor that has to be considered here is technology, as this has a huge impact not only on farming methods, but on the available amount of land as more unsuitable land is irrigated and harnessed for food production. Therefore this all-important ratio is further altered beyond a simple arithmetic progression.<br /><br />The other elephant (or should I say pig, cow, sheep or chicken) in the room we cannot afford to ignore is WHAT food is produced. It is a fact that the rearing of livestock for meat consumes far more resources than growing vegetables, grains and cereals for human consumption. Depending on whether you subscribe to the vegetarian view or the more independent scientific view, the statistics are more or less alarming. From WikiPedia "the inefficiencies of meat, milk and egg production range from 4:1 up to 54:1 energy input to protein output ratio." Some averages from the US:<br />It takes 440 gallons of water to produce 1 lb of beef, and 14 to produce 1 lb of wheat.<br />For every lb of pork produced, 7 lb of corn and grains are fed to pigs.<br />On average, it takes 12 times as many fossil fuels to produce 1 lb of meat protein than 1 lb of vegetable protein.<br /><br />This is relevant because in all these areas of the earth where huge population increases are expected, people there are not going to be concerned whether they get meat every day, rather that they get enough nutrition just to survive.<br /><br />Having said all this, the facts are incontrovertible. We are all going to die some day. The earth's resources, including land, are finite, and at some stage will not be able to support any further human population growth. Back to the humans as bacteria argument! Which is looking like the most convincing comment here...dylanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13037638558895472514noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-24474123491750950402011-03-26T06:28:38.468-03:002011-03-26T06:28:38.468-03:00I wonder how uranium prices are not directly linke...I wonder how uranium prices are not directly linked to oil prices...J Hass Grouphttp://www.theandysan.com/j-hass-group-debt-settlementnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-4600399106942551912011-03-16T14:45:17.708-03:002011-03-16T14:45:17.708-03:00Good that I didnt buy any cameco shares now :-)
H...Good that I didnt buy any cameco shares now :-)<br /><br />Here is a good article about the japan- reactor situation<br /><br />https://morgsatlarge.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00430452038953612945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-45112621501894796352011-03-09T22:27:02.824-04:002011-03-09T22:27:02.824-04:00Cameco has been having difficulty with flooding at...Cameco has been having difficulty with flooding at their Cigar Lake mine which has impacted their production projections. Here's an article:<br /><br />http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/story/2010/02/11/sk-cameco-cigar-lake-flooding-cleared.html<br /><br />They still have upside potential but, like the oils, CCO has not reached the highs that it reached when uranium prices soared in 2007 - 2008. I think that the market is a bit more cautious this time out.A Political Junkiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-17866829095111741602011-03-09T06:35:14.440-04:002011-03-09T06:35:14.440-04:00Thank you Junkie, its a good article (uranium)!
I...Thank you Junkie, its a good article (uranium)!<br /><br />I wonder how uranium prices are not directly linked to oil prices...<br />This Cameco's share price (have a look on the last 5 years..) one would expect uranium would be in all time high...its just around its average <br /><br />http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CCO:CNUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00430452038953612945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-87350281390924589712011-03-08T19:54:13.538-04:002011-03-08T19:54:13.538-04:00Thanks Michael. I did a posting on uranium way ba...Thanks Michael. I did a posting on uranium way back when I started out located here:<br /><br />http://viableopposition.blogspot.com/2010/04/nuclear-alternative.html<br /><br />I'll likely revisit it sometime and put in more information as I have experience in the uranium industry.<br /><br />You are right, food expenditures as a percentage of household budgets is at an all-time low, a fact I constantly hear from farmers in my community!A Political Junkiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-49963253598476228962011-03-08T11:28:35.710-04:002011-03-08T11:28:35.710-04:00Thank you for your comments (anonymous comment1).
...Thank you for your comments (anonymous comment1).<br />This blog is by far my favourite.<br /><br />our growth will be similar to bacteria's? <br />Possible. I personally think population rise will halt due to cultural shifts such as equality to women and the adaptation of western life style.<br /><br />I agree with political junkie- its a self perpetuating trend....until alternatives to current energy sources will be found. I think high food prices might bring market stability. <br />I believe (didnt check) that as a % of income expenditure, food is in a historic low.<br />25 years ago food would be far more expensive... MacDonalds been a good meal out for the average family...today MacDonalds is dirty cheap and a fancy restaurant is the new normal for middle class people.<br /><br />As geopolitical analyst I think you missed one crucial issue (maybe I missed your post)- Rare earth elements and Uranium as an energy source.<br /><br />Would be happy to contribute some graphs or charts on request. Not sure I can write as nice as you do :-)<br />mm662@cam.ac.uk<br />Thanks a lot for this wonderful blog!<br />MichaelUnknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00430452038953612945noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-14581646669916253632011-03-07T22:18:42.999-04:002011-03-07T22:18:42.999-04:00Anonymous
I can't argue with any of your poin...Anonymous<br /><br />I can't argue with any of your points. In large part, price increases in food are related to the use of grains to produce ethanol and the demand for ethanol rises as the price of oil rises perpetuating the problem. It will be interesting in the future though to see if there is a relationship between the price of food and population as those nations that cannot afford to feed themselves and who practise subsistence agriculture will suffer far more from high prices and low output.<br /><br />Thanks for your thoughts.A Political Junkiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-6691614426566182462011-03-07T16:38:52.531-04:002011-03-07T16:38:52.531-04:00In autecological studies, bacterial growth in batc...In autecological studies, bacterial growth in batch culture can be modeled with four different phases: lag phase (A), exponential or log phase (B), stationary phase (C), and death phase (D).<br /><br /> 1. During lag phase, bacteria adapt themselves to growth conditions. It is the period where the individual bacteria are maturing and not yet able to divide. During the lag phase of the bacterial growth cycle, synthesis of RNA, enzymes and other molecules occurs. So in this phase the microorganisms are not dormant.<br /> 2. Exponential phase (sometimes called the log phase or the logarithmic phase) is a period characterized by cell doubling.[3] The number of new bacteria appearing per unit time is proportional to the present population. If growth is not limited, doubling will continue at a constant rate so both the number of cells and the rate of population increase doubles with each consecutive time period. For this type of exponential growth, plotting the natural logarithm of cell number against time produces a straight line. The slope of this line is the specific growth rate of the organism, which is a measure of the number of divisions per cell per unit time.[3] The actual rate of this growth (i.e. the slope of the line in the figure) depends upon the growth conditions, which affect the frequency of cell division events and the probability of both daughter cells surviving. Under controlled conditions, cyanobacteria can double their population four times a day.[4] Exponential growth cannot continue indefinitely, however, because the medium is soon depleted of nutrients and enriched with wastes.<br /> 3. During stationary phase, the growth rate slows as a result of nutrient depletion and accumulation of toxic products. This phase is reached as the bacteria begin to exhaust the resources that are available to them. This phase is a constant value as the rate of bacterial growth is equal to the rate of bacterial death.<br /> 4. At death phase, bacteria run out of nutrients and die.<br /><br />http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacterial_growthKrakennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-57489685075591856412011-03-07T15:22:53.587-04:002011-03-07T15:22:53.587-04:00I agree with Anonymous; good reply by the way.I agree with Anonymous; good reply by the way.Djamelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-26547652690989141892011-03-07T15:06:12.893-04:002011-03-07T15:06:12.893-04:00Im a devoted follower of this blog but this articl...Im a devoted follower of this blog but this article i find hard to digest. <br />The article assumes one variant that it shouldnt assume. <br />-The rise of food prices is related to the limited production of food. <br />Its simply not true....rich countries dont produce those basic foods us mention....developed countries produce only expensive products such as berries and asparagus. Just because these require more knowledge and are far more profitable.<br />If demand will increase prices of basic foods these countries will go back to basics and food prices will falctuate downwards again. <br />I didnt even mention that the unused potential farm land in the world can easily supply the growing population.....<br />So why food prices increase?<br />Because food prices directly linked to oil's! <br /><br />Food handling in every step of its production heavily relays on oil...tractors, transport and packaging. Hence it is not surprising that even though production exceeds demand and will continue to do so for a while...the actual cost of producing food is increasing as long as oil prices remain high. <br /><br />Malthus didnt think in terms of energy.... <br />Its not the population's size...its the abundance of energy....Its the same rule in nature. <br />The amount of energy trees convert from the sun is the main source of food for the rest of the chain....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com