tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post8840683716087134756..comments2024-03-27T11:18:34.222-03:00Comments on Viable Opposition: America's Long-Term Unemployed: It is Different This TimeA Political Junkiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-63501527626790291252012-04-05T10:23:33.314-03:002012-04-05T10:23:33.314-03:00For a clue as to how our country's future will...For a clue as to how our country's future will be, look to Japan. An aging and shrinking population, a high savings rate and aversion to increasing personal consumption together with large government deficits puts them in a slow downward path as far as GDP is concerned. The US is somewhat more fortunate in that we still have some population growth and enormous sources of new energy to fuel our economy. The debt hangover from the last decade and the enormous costs of retiring baby boomers are still going to hold the economy back for several years. Finally, our educational system is not producing enough graduates with the right skill sets. Politicians with the courage to attack these issues cannot get elected since the electorate is not ready to swallow some tough medicine.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13162628933257657904noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-88679961194150777312012-02-11T18:05:51.781-04:002012-02-11T18:05:51.781-04:00People do not give up what they previously had ver...People do not give up what they previously had very easily. The best that we can hope for is that individual debt is reduced and hope that the drop inconsumption does not push us over the cliff. In a similar way, profits at previously sustainable way are not realistic. But business is not going to easily adjust to more modest profits, bonuses, dividents, etc. This will push the stock market lower. Will that push us over the cliff. Or does the crumbling infrastructure get worse without investment? I hope you get my drift.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-91036276659282493772012-02-11T12:21:05.683-04:002012-02-11T12:21:05.683-04:00We haven't seen such a slow recovery because w...We haven't seen such a slow recovery because we haven't seen a bubble this big in a long time. It's really a perfect storm. We lasted this long for a while on our service and retail industry which, in turn, has been kept up by a debt-fueled consumption.<br /><br />Here's a scary thought: given our current saving rate, the current levels of consumption is pretty much where they are supposed to be at best and might be still slightly too high (again, remember, the higher levels were debt-fueled). <br /><br />We have no sustainable industry, no exports, and a ton of people with the perfect skillset for an economy that no longer exists and needs to completely remodel itself to take in the new technology (here's something interesting to research: how difficult was it for the US to adapt to electricity. I believe we're just starting to see a similar shift now with the internet) and a VERY large piece of population that not only demands high pay employment (due to high experience) but also higher support services due to age.<br /><br />Even if we didn't make the mistakes we did, this mess was coming (the mistakes just turned an asteroid into a planet). New normal? More like 'start from scratch'. It's why all of the 'solutions' just compound the problem, since you really can't speed things up.<br /><br /><br />Given that, I believe the solution is to first get over the 'high life' from the 80s-2006. Trying to get back there now just means more issues. <br /><br />Next will be to try to balance the situation without civil unrest and while realizing that this will be painful for a long, long time. I like the conservative ideals of a safety net based on training programs. Job programs, even the 'hated' temporary government jobs, can keep up the job experience of many people, both to avoid 'employment gaps' and to let others acquire skills they wouldn't get otherwise. <br /><br />Besides, just being able to say 'I have a job' even when you know it's temporary feels a lot better than job hunting for 6 months. <br /><br />Encourage saving. Cut down on expenses. Taxes won't make a difference here (it needs an overhaul but that's for OTHER reasons). Look for new industries and encourage them, though know nothing will come for about a decade. <br /><br />Then hunker down, try not to destroy yourselves, and slowly build ourselves up from scratch.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-21463341211744312492012-02-09T19:38:34.526-04:002012-02-09T19:38:34.526-04:00Ren, I agree with the population growth issue, par...Ren, I agree with the population growth issue, particularly as one goes back several decades. That's why I think that looking at the past decade is key and that's why I included a graph showing just that.<br /><br />We have rarely seen such a slow "jobs recovery" no matter what the size of the population and/or workforce.A Political Junkiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-84308179274466254572012-02-09T13:30:31.393-04:002012-02-09T13:30:31.393-04:00The big picture here seems simple. For the last 8...The big picture here seems simple. For the last 8-10 years, most individuals, corporations and governments ("group"-economy as a whole-GDP)have been living beyond their means and borrowing money to do so. During this period, the "group" was spending more money than they were generating and as a result the economies grew at a higher rate than if they had been living within their means. It reached a point where the debt burden became unmanageable. <br /><br />The general solution being offered by governments/central banks is cheap and plentiful money so the "group" (now with a focus on consumers) will borrow MORE and thereby enable the economies grow more so they can repay the excessive debt burden that already exists! <br /><br />Expecting that debt burdened "consumers" within an economy can continue to increase "spending" so the economy can "expand" more and reduce relative debt burdens, just doesn't make any sense! <br /><br />Economies are going to have to "shrink" back to levels of production that are compatible with the "groups"/consumers ability to consume. In general, increasing "production" (and employment etc) would not seem to be in the cards for a while. <br /><br />This will be a painful correction that cannot be avoided by "growing" an economy with artificially cheap debt and printing money - an action that will inevitably result in inflation without solving the core problem - excessive debt.<br /><br />People, corporations and governments do not take well to reducing their standard of living/profits/activities. Hopefully this "shrinking" can be accomplished without too much civil unrest.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-89391669429394958982012-02-09T13:03:11.775-04:002012-02-09T13:03:11.775-04:00The percentage graph seems much more useful as the...The percentage graph seems much more useful as the first two don't account for population growth and therefore exaggerate the issue. Not that the issue isn't extreme, but exaggeration isn't helpful for real analysis.<br /><br />However, even the percentage graph is missing at least one key factor that comes to mind: the age of the workforce. The "BY AGE" graph starts to capture a display bit of this information... It just occurred to me to check if the linked PDF had what I want, and at first glance it appears to have one additional age-related graph, but that only compares the ages of the unemployed with the ages of the workforce.<br /><br />While I don't expect it to account for the entirety of the increase in long-term unemployed compared with previous post-recession periods, I would like to see how much different it is.<br /><br />To be clear, I'm suggesting that the high number of Baby Boomers contribute to the higher-than-typical portion of long-term unemployed.Renhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06322298259478055479noreply@blogger.com