tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post8869684753843705592..comments2024-03-12T16:31:22.046-03:00Comments on Viable Opposition: Sovereign Debt Default: Learning Lessons From ArgentinaA Political Junkiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-12636432220631322682012-05-23T08:28:53.303-03:002012-05-23T08:28:53.303-03:00Why is it everyone else's fault except your ow...Why is it everyone else's fault except your own? I'm offered all kinds of credit from the bank, dreams of riches from TV ads etc but I didn't get sucked in.<br /><br />I earned my way through bad and good times without taking on onerous debt. Spend less, save more!<br /><br />And furthermore this is one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Chile has fared better because there is a deeper sense of transparency and trust.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-47684503474288816372012-04-24T23:38:46.933-03:002012-04-24T23:38:46.933-03:00Just wanted to add that the IMF supported by a ban...Just wanted to add that the IMF supported by a banking system that is allowed to produce money as debt with little or no control of its capital base and restrictions to over leveraging is bound to failure. I'd dare to say it is a mathematical and logical certainty. <br />In this predicament the western world model finds itself today. An anchor to the excesses of this system is well over-due and I'm afraid the US dollar or other fiat currencies will not be part of it..or so I hope!RRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09036161257314798054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-15744739166853087592012-04-24T23:30:50.604-03:002012-04-24T23:30:50.604-03:00Argentina has many chronic problems that go back i...Argentina has many chronic problems that go back into its history. Most significantly, its ruling classes are always unequivocally out to line their pockets irrespective of...anything. Likewise business captains and barons are out there for the short terms profits come hell and high water. A lack of moral awareness is fed by useless legislators which are in any case completely compliant to their political caudillo on whose backs they ride and make their wealth. <br />Currently there is a push-pull at a monetary level whereby the forces of inflation are trying to be combated by restricting consumption which ironically was the key component of its economic policy = get the money out there so that it may in turn create demand for goods and services and create a virtuous circle. The plan has failed -as always- because what seems to work on paper does not do as well in reality. Organic growth is based on a "rational allocation of resources" and an appropriate consumption in balance with returns from the resource allocation. The aforementioned is only reached by free markets and stable rules that do not change every week or month as is the case. Add to this the political in and out-fighting and we have a pretty wild situation. Argentina and its people are so resilient that we can put up with all this BS and still "live".RRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09036161257314798054noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-59774522403406927252012-04-21T12:38:08.309-03:002012-04-21T12:38:08.309-03:00Thank you to Political Junkie for the ever well-re...Thank you to Political Junkie for the ever well-researched and interesting articles.<br /><br />It has been a few months since this article on Argentina was posted but I re-read it in light of having returned from Argentina a couple of days ago, just as the Argentinian Government made a grab for the gas/petroleum company, YPF, from the majority Spanish owner, Repsol. Not surprisingly, this grab hasn't done much for the share price of YPF or the Argentinian stock market.<br /><br />My over-riding feeling in Argentina, especially in Buenos Aires, was of a severely staggering economy. Mugging rates are high, graffiti adorns the walls, broken and cracked sidewalks are a hazard for ankles and eyes must be cast down to avoid the holes and the dog shit.<br /><br />There was little sense of civic or national pride, which was not unexpected but very sad for a nation with such resources and unfulfilled potential. The current inflation rate is published as 9.8% - on the lower end for Argentina, and it is never a good sign, when a country does not want its own currency. <br /><br />A new rule bans the conversion of Argentinian pesos back to US dollars, unless you have a bank receipt showing you first converted from dollars to obtain the pesos. If the pesos were obtained from an ATM, you are out of luck - stuck with devaluing pesos, it is hoped that the travellers will grit their teeth and spend the currency before leaving the country.<br /><br />Over-employment and under utilization is everywhere. The currency exchange booths house about 8 young folk in blue uniforms, all doing nothing and the same over-employment is evident nation wide.<br /><br />Will it be a surprise for Argentina to default again? I think not.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-44050611657555831312012-02-28T21:49:48.472-04:002012-02-28T21:49:48.472-04:00Hard to print a new currency without word getting ...Hard to print a new currency without word getting out? You're right:<br />http://www.arabianmoney.net/us-dollar/2011/11/27/germany-printing-deutsche-marks-british-foreign-office-warns-of-euro-chaos/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-24356849723499982032011-12-02T12:11:21.582-04:002011-12-02T12:11:21.582-04:00Some comments on this very intersting analysis:
-...Some comments on this very intersting analysis: <br />- Argentina's roller coaster problems got back much further than 1989. I recall taking advantage of earlier Martinez de Hoz experiments along calle Florida. <br />- The analysis skips over the Current Account Deficit,which deserves most of the attention. A country in a currency peg cannot correct trade deficits, so it should not allow them, even if they are easy to finance thanks to the flood of incoming hot money. Eventually it will stop and reverse out. <br />- The most critical lesson from the Argentine default is the damage done to local savings by the partial deposit freeze, el corralito. <br /><br />With such experimentation turning the country into an economics laboratory, is it any wonder that Argentina has one of the highest consumptions of transquilizers in the world? <br /><br />Here's an article about how the economic midgets are coping in Europe http://ppplusofonia.blogspot.com/2011/05/midgets-cant-guarantee-intra-eurozone.htmlPPP Lusofoniahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027335388583446474noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-72428531695441554302011-11-24T18:32:38.025-04:002011-11-24T18:32:38.025-04:00A very good analysis and a clear thought process. ...A very good analysis and a clear thought process. I would also urge you to study how the Asian economies suffered in currency crisis of 1997, how they were under the "guidance" of the IMF, how they recovered and are very strong today in economic terms. <br /><br />If I remember correctly, the Asian countries hated the IMF, did not agree to many of the IMF suggested measures and have very strong reservations about seeking IMF assistance now or ever. Are austerity measures easier to implement in Asian countries than in European ones?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-47556584808720525722011-11-23T23:15:58.697-04:002011-11-23T23:15:58.697-04:00COMPARE....
http://nationaldebtclocks.com/german...COMPARE....<br /><br /><br />http://nationaldebtclocks.com/germany.htm GERMAN DEBT CLOCK.<br /><br /><br />http://www.usdebtclock.org/ USA DEBT CLOCK.<br /><br /><br />Both clocks I believe are made in China LOL!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-29737395263378652542011-11-16T22:05:14.797-04:002011-11-16T22:05:14.797-04:00Thanks for your input. It's always interestin...Thanks for your input. It's always interesting to get a "local" viewpoint.A Political Junkiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-28925407042197992682011-11-16T10:35:49.439-04:002011-11-16T10:35:49.439-04:00Visiting Argentina shortly before and after the de...Visiting Argentina shortly before and after the default, a few observations I made were:<br />1) A year before default, the US$ and peso were equal, shops would take either without question, but you could get savings or loan accounts in either US$ or pesos but the interest rates on the peso accounts were triple those on the US$ accounts; in retrospect a signal that something was going to happen.<br />2) Having pesos in circulation in parallel with the US$ rather than replacing it with the US$ meant that the process of breaking the fixed rate was quite easy; which it will not be for the Euro, hard to print a new currency without the word getting out.<br />3) After the default all the US$ accounts, both savings and loans were converted to pesos at rates set by the government (not exactly the same rate either to screw the mostly foreign owned banks) and utility rates were converted to pesos despite the mostly foreign owned utilities thinking that they had iron clad contracts to charge in US$. Banks thinking mortgages will remain in Euros after a default are dreaming.Travel_the_Worldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00573271251233814981noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-41070427788648366462011-11-16T10:25:50.648-04:002011-11-16T10:25:50.648-04:00There is much debate today as to whether Argentina...There is much debate today as to whether Argentina's economy is doing well or is poised for yet another collapse. I am of the view that its distortionist policies in energy, capital outflows, subsidies, etc and its north of 20% inflation rate will catch up with it soon and another painful economic time will grip the country. I would love to hear your views?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com