Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Why the Battle Against Jihadist Terrorism Is Unwinnable

Updated November 2015

The battle against ISIS seems to be going nowhere and it now appears that ISIS-related terrorists have started taking western lives.  As shown on this map, despite the consortium of Western nations that are fighting against its advance, ISIS still controls a significant portion of western Iraq and Syria (region shaded in grey):


As we know, Islam is divided into two competing branches; Sunni and Shia.  With that in mind, let's open this posting with this diagram that helps to explain which nations are Shia and which are Sunni along with further subdivisions and which branch has the majority in each nation:


Here is a map showing the global Shia-Sunni divide with Shia majority nations shown in yellow and Sunni majority nations shown in green:


The geopolitical landscape of the ongoing fight in Syria has become extremely complex.  The four-year-long conflict started with pro-democracy protests in March 2011 which were met with bullets fired by Assad's security forces.  Nationwide protests took place and by July 2011, hundreds of thousands of Syrians took to the streets.  Syria descended into civil war with rebel brigades forming to fight against Assad-controlled government forces who, at the time, were considered "the bad guys".  This civil war has morphed into more than just a battle between pro- and anti-Assad forces and has resulted in sectarian fighting between the President's minority Shia Alawite sect and Syria's Sunni majority.  Jihadist groups like ISIS (Sunni) have entered the fray, feeding a religion-based battle that has its roots in the 2011 political battle against Bashar al-Assad.

Let's look at who is supporting who in this civil war and their Islamic affiliation:

1.) Pro-Assad (pro-government/Shia): government forces (i.e. Syria's armed forces), Iran-backed National Defense Force, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iraq's Assaib Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah, Shia refugees from Afghanistan, Russia and China.

2.) Anti-Assad (anti-government/rebel forces/Sunni): Ahrar-al-Sham, the Islamic Front, al-Qaeda's Nusra Front, foreign Sunni fighters from Arab and Western nations, ISIS, AQI, funding from Saudi Arabia and other gulf states.  

Here is a 2014 speech from Vice President Joe Biden where he outlines the complexity of the geopolitical problems in the region from some of America's supposed allies in the region:


Here's what he said:

"Our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria...the Saudis, the Emirates etcetera, what were they doing?  They were so determined to take down Assad and essentially have a proxy Sunni-Shia war, what did they do? They poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens of thousands of tons of  weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad except the people who were being supplied were Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world.

Much of the current Sunni - Shia tension in the region has its roots in the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the Middle East's Arab Spring.  In the case of Iraq, the United States and its coalition partners removed Saddam Hussein (a Sunni) who ruled over a nation that had a majority of Shia citizens.  Now, Iraq's Shia majority is dominating Iraq's parliament and its prime ministers have both been Shia, leading to what can only be termed a civil war against Sunnis who have joined ISIS and AQI.  

As I noted above, complicating the situation in Syria and Iraq even further is the presence of AQI also known as Al-Qaeda in Iraq.  This Sunni terrorist group declined in importance in Iraq during 2009 - 2010, however, after the rise of the insurgency in Syria, they began to increase in strength.  Here is a formerly secret, heavily redacted Department of Defense document looking at AQI's activities in Syria and the ultimate impact on Iraq:




Notice that in the last paragraph, the DoD is concerned that the continuing deterioration in the situation in Syria may result in the creation of an "...ideal atmosphere for AQI to return to its old pockets in Mosul and Ramadi (in Iraq) and will provide a renewed momentum under the presumption of unifying the jihad among Sunni Iraq and Syria, and the rest of the Sunnis in the Araba world against what it considers one enemy, the dissenters.  ISI (ISIS) could also declare an Islamic state throughout its union with other terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria, which will create grave danger in regards to unifying Iraq and the protection of its territory."

As we can see, the religious complexity of the Syria/Iraq/ISIS/al-Qaeda/Assad/rebel forces issue is practically unsolvable.  With America's Middle East allies arming the Sunni/ISIS/al-Qaeda side in the religious war against Assad and his Shia/Alawite/Iranian army, there will be no clear winner if, in fact, there ever is a winner, except for the terrorists.

7 comments:

  1. Lebanon went through something very similar. Syria will most likely remain at war for several more years. But what will happen is the country will self-segregate and after a while all sides will want the fighting to end. Syria and Iraq both might split into new countries with both doing a 3 way split between Shia/ Sunni and Kurds. These splits might be done in a way that the countries maintain their shapes on maps(autonomous regions) or they might completely break away(South Sudan style). This is the most likely outcome, but will take at least 5 to 7 years minimum to play out. 15-20 years would be my worst case timeline if the fighting lasts that long look for extreme issues going on in Europe with the volume of Middle eastern refugees. These timelines assume no major world power commits completely to one side or the other. Obviously if the US invades Syria to overthrow Al Assad then the timelines are useless. Likewise if Russia and Iran combined forces on Al Assad's side the same thing would happen in the other direction.

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  2. I agree with those who see real danger lurking for the two big targets and major prizes that ISIS hopes to claim. One of those is Baghdad and the other Saudi Arabia. Assad is looking rather weak and has little hope of turning back ISIS.

    Bottom-line is that the whole region is in flux and ISIS is exploiting the situation.We should not be surprised if before long ISIS begins banging on the gates of Baghdad and creates a situation reminisce of the street to street fighting that took place in Beirut, Lebanon years ago. Below is a report detailing some of the issues we face in the region.

    http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2015/05/isis-targets-baghdad-and-saudi-arabia.html

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  3. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
    17.10.2015
    Russian aviation performed 36 combat sorties from the Hmeymim airbase engaging 49 ISIS facilities in the Hama, Idlib, Lattakia, Damascus and Aleppo provinces.
    The strikes of the Russian aviation resulted in elimination of the following targets:
    11 command and control centres of illegal armed groups;
    a plant manufacturing improvised explosive devices;
    3 firing artillery positions of militants;
    9 depots with ammunition and armament;
    2 bases of combat vehicles;
    15 field camps and terrorist bases;
    8 fortified areas and defensive positions.
    Near Salma (Lattakia province), a Su-24M bomber engaged a single building with a training base of terrorists. According to the reconnaissance data, in the building, foreign instructors prepared ISIS militants for sabotage war against the districts liberated by the Syrian army, as well as suicide bombers. Along with engineer training, the terrorists were taught to legalize among the civilians and refugees. The building also contained a workshop for production of improvised explosive devices. The direct hit of an air bomb resulted in total destruction of the building.
    Near Talbiseh (Homs province) a large terrorist ammunitions depot was eliminated. The hit was made at the moment when a new batch of mortar mines and munitions as well as small arms was being delivered to the object. After the strike, the detonation of ammunition started. According to objective monitoring data confirmed destruction of 3 heavy trucks at the object.
    In the suburbs of Damascus, Su-24M aircraft destroyed two ammunition depots and a workshop manufacturing improvised explosive devices for the ISIS terrorists. Precision strikes completely destroyed the objects.
    Near Khan Al-Asal (Aleppo province), Su-25 attack aircraft engaged militants’ base destroying terrorist shelters as well as concentration of tanks and armoured vehicles. According to the objective monitoring data, two tanks and five infantry fighting vehicles of the ISIS militants were destroyed.
    The new tactics of the militants, which include dispersing of ammunition depots and command centres, remain unsuccessful. All the newly-made ISIS infrastructural facilities are being detected by the Russian means of reconnaissance are immediately destroyed. It is to be mentioned that significant assistance is rendered by the inhabitants of those areas, which are temporarily under militants’ control. They inform the Syrian intelligence about the terrorist activities.
    After receiving such information, the Command of the Russian air group checks it and makes the decision concerning the engagement of the facilities.
    Thus, near Marj al-Sultan, Su-24M bomber engaged a command centre of the “Faylak Omar” illegal armed group. According to the Syrian intelligence, the militants, who formed part of the group, were responsible for a number of terrorist attacks in the Homs and Damascus provinces.
    The strike resulted in destruction of the building.
    After the task performance, all the Russian aircraft returned to the Hmeymim airfield. It is to be emphasized that the Russian unmanned aerial vehicles continue situation monitoring in the sky over Syria.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Toh7EKvo08s
    Pinpoint strike with BETAB-500 concrete-piercing air bombs on a bunker of ISIS terrorists in the Lattakia province.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX-xKELYYlI
    Precision strike with a KAB-500 air bomb against a militants' command centre in the Idlib province.
    http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12061063@egNews

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  4. Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation
    17.10.2015
    Russian aviation performed 36 combat sorties from the Hmeymim airbase engaging 49 ISIS facilities in the Hama, Idlib, Lattakia, Damascus and Aleppo provinces.
    The strikes of the Russian aviation resulted in elimination of the following targets:
    11 command and control centres of illegal armed groups;
    a plant manufacturing improvised explosive devices;
    3 firing artillery positions of militants;
    9 depots with ammunition and armament;
    2 bases of combat vehicles;
    15 field camps and terrorist bases;
    8 fortified areas and defensive positions.
    http://eng.mil.ru/en/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12061063@egNews

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  5. Russian Army General Staff: Russia conducted more than 600 sorties against 380 ISIS positions in Syria since Sep 30
    http://sana.sy/en/?p=57994

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  6. The US spend 10 million a day from the pocket of American taxpayers on imitation of the fight against ISIL - this is corruption.

    ...As of Sep. 15, 2015, the total cost of operations related to ISIL since
    kinetic operations started on Aug. 8, 2014, is $4 billion(!) and the
    average daily cost is $10 million for 404 days of operations.

    and what is result?
    USA has demonstrated the complete impotence.
    Pentagon recognizes that the ISIL in this year joined 20 thousand new "Jihad warriors".

    ReplyDelete