tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post5731789892260192572..comments2024-03-12T16:31:22.046-03:00Comments on Viable Opposition: The Baltic Dry Index - A Harbinger of Bad Things To ComeA Political Junkiehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03342345936277964422noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-36149668784979923362012-02-09T14:51:42.309-04:002012-02-09T14:51:42.309-04:00Check out this article about the BDI, seems like m...Check out this article about the BDI, seems like more people are paying attention:<br /><br />http://etfdailynews.com/2012/02/08/baltic-dry-index-why-is-global-shipping-slowing-down-so-dramatically-sea-tza-spxu-spy-ewg-vgk/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-21004777090927430082012-02-02T18:28:34.580-04:002012-02-02T18:28:34.580-04:00QE ran its course and never again. 80% of people a...QE ran its course and never again. 80% of people are stupid and thats why it succeeded. Freshly printed money from the printing presses found its way not to our pocket but the pockets of big corporations. The productivity of these corporations is very low but is never measured properly the reason being the difficulties in accruing intangible investments over the decade and half. To compensate the emphasis in the last decade and half was on the derivatives and ponzi schemes instead on productivity. Shareholders were lured into internet wonders etc. And then big technology bubble and recession happened. This recession never stopped actually! What happened in this decade is manipulation of mounting debt world-wide and this had (temporarily) hidden the fact that the recession never stopped. This all happened through derivatives game which became global so no competitive advantage in stupidity. Now the time has come to put 20 trillion of dollars on the balance sheets. Now is Hic Rhodos hic salta. This will result in the sharpest decline in the history of stock market. s&p will go down to 650.<br />Infusion of money from presses postpones the inevitable. All this money was given practically free of charge to - corporations, i.e. those who caused all of this to happen by hiring wrong people on fake jobs. What corporations did with all this money given to them free of charge. They bough other corporations, i.e. they got them for free. So they boost numbers and stocks go up. They fired people and official productivity numbers did not suffer, off course as 80% of people doing nothing or doing wrong things, and intangible asset investments mounting and mounting and mounting. The cause is systemic, it is a Gordie knot. After s&p reaches 650 there will be major overhaul in corporations and only in 2023 the real economy will start growing againAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-74804900231408353102012-02-02T09:36:28.867-04:002012-02-02T09:36:28.867-04:00The correlation is iffy. Looking at BDI vs Dow, BD...The correlation is iffy. Looking at BDI vs Dow, BDI has been trending down since September while the Dow has been moving up. The divergence is extreme at this point. What does this say about using BDI as a predictor of future market turns? In the past six months, it's been a contrary indicator.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-65965850351209105182012-01-31T18:30:34.218-04:002012-01-31T18:30:34.218-04:00I'm wondering, with the mention of a possible ...I'm wondering, with the mention of a possible QE3, how long that will prolong the inevitable? Perhaps another year? Are there only a few of us who are able (willing) to see the wool that's pulled over our eyes enough to know what's coming? BDI closed down again, today, to 680. Week of December 1st, 2008 was the bottom at 663 followed by the market crash 3 months later. If we blow past 663, I fear the house of cards must, at some point, come tumbling down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-20355628197515265732012-01-31T09:58:16.127-04:002012-01-31T09:58:16.127-04:00Oh, but QE will be able to keep commodity price al...Oh, but QE will be able to keep commodity price alive for a couple more kicks at the can...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-8648093409817600972012-01-27T17:04:28.228-04:002012-01-27T17:04:28.228-04:00QE2 was announced on the 27th of August 2010 at ja...QE2 was announced on the 27th of August 2010 at jackson hole, but people were already expecting it in june-july 2010.<br /><br />QE is the discrepancyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-62611993712088851332012-01-27T15:53:31.732-04:002012-01-27T15:53:31.732-04:00Also, after I ran a chart overlay for weekly BDI a...Also, after I ran a chart overlay for weekly BDI and weekly INDU (Dow), they are almost exactly 3 months apart, with BDI leading. But, what I cannot explain is that from 2008 to June 7th, 2010 the indicators were pretty much in tune, ups and downs, but since June 7th 2010, we have a serious divergence between them. The Dow has sky-rocketed while the BDI has headed South. Does anyone with more experience have an idea of what might be going on here? What happened in June to cause this break (discrepancy)?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-62156908993808848212012-01-27T15:40:27.547-04:002012-01-27T15:40:27.547-04:00If you look at the charts for the Dow ($INDU) and ...If you look at the charts for the Dow ($INDU) and Russell 2000 ($RUT) for 2008-2011, it appears a sharp change in BDI may precede these indicators by 3 months. I.e. the market lag 3 months behind the BDI. So, if the author is correct and we use the current BDI value of 753 as the "low" for now, then we should see the markets in dire straits around the 20-30th of April 2012. We'll see I guess.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-76646148411506949342012-01-27T14:39:52.044-04:002012-01-27T14:39:52.044-04:00So what is the correlation of BDI to past US bear ...So what is the correlation of BDI to past US bear markets going back 70 or more years?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6399730406480392183.post-68839454908888667992012-01-27T14:26:59.857-04:002012-01-27T14:26:59.857-04:00Thanks for the post, I would be really interested ...Thanks for the post, I would be really interested to know what sort of lag time there is between drop in the BDI and recorded fall in actual commodity prices. Has anyone heard of such a measure, or am I just not understanding the BDI?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com