Turkey - The Next BRICS Member State?

The first NATO member state has applied to join the ever-growing and increasingly powerful global alliance.  Turkey, looking to increase its presence on the world stage and stepping away from the traditional geopolitical and economic alliances that have increasingly lost their power in the new multipolar reality, has formally requested membership in the BRICS alliance of the world's developing economies.

 

As background, BRICS currently consists of founding members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and, effective in 2024, have added Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Ethiopia to their full membership list with Algeria, Vietnam, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Venezuela, Kazakhstan, Cuba, Palestine, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Bangladesh, the Kingdom of Bahrain, Belarus, Kuwait, Senegal, and Bolivia also being in line to join.

 

BRICS advocates for the reform of the United Nations Security Council and, most importantly to the global economy, the abandonment of the "imperial currency", the United Sates dollar.  

 

Here is a quote from a recent article on the BRICS website:

  

"Joining the BRICS means accepting currencies other than the dollar and connecting to new international payment systems. It is about “addressing what we consider an unjust and costly payment system”, said South Africa’s Minister of Foreign Affairs earlier this year."

 

Interestingly, on September 1, 2024, Russia launched a platform that will allow large Russia companies to settle their export and import transactions in Bitcoin since it is an "absolute, stateless and uncensorable store of value that the world needs to trade on equal terms".

 

As it stands now, BRICS has a significant and growing advantage to the Western economic powerhouse, the G7.  Here is a comparison:

 

1.) Population - BRICS - 46 percent  G7 - 10 percent

 

2.) Global share of GDP (PPP) - BRICS - 35 percent   G7 - 30 percent

 

3.) 2050 share of GDP - BRICS - 50 percent  G7 - 20 percent

  

At a the recent sixth edition of the BRICS International Municipal Forum, held in Moscow on August 27th and 28th, 2024, 120 foreign countries met with 5000 participants from 500 cities in attendance to discuss cooperation between megacities and the BRICS framework:

 

As well, between October 22nd and October 24th, 2024, the BRICS Summit will be held in Kazan, Russia.  While Washington in specific and the leaders of the West in general would have us believe that Russia has been sanctioned and shunned by the global community into oblivion, in fact, their role in the BRICS alliance seems to be very strong. 

  

Let's go back to Turkey, a new potential member of BRICS.  Turkey is a founding member of the OECD and the G20.  Its economy is the 17th largest in the world according to the IMF and the nation had a GDP of $1.024 trillion in 2023.  In June 2024, Turkey exported $17.1 billion worth of goods and imported $22.7 billion resulting in a negative trade balance of $5.6 billion for the month.  Turkey's top exports for the month were cars, tractors, trucks & parts thereof ($2.22B), machinery, mechanical appliances, & parts ($1.53B), electrical machinery and electronics ($1.03B), iron & steel ($862M), and precious stones, metals, & pearls ($775M). Top imports for the month were mineral fuels, mineral oils and products  ($4.14B), machinery, mechanical appliances, & parts ($2.7B), cars, tractors, trucks & parts thereof. ($2.31B), electrical machinery and electronics ($1.78B), and iron & steel($1.58B).  In June 2024, Turkey exported mostly to Germany ($1.33B), United States ($1.19B), United Kingdom ($1.03B), Italy ($921M), and Iraq ($729M), and imported mostly from China ($3.14B), Russia ($2.96B), Germany ($1.72B), the rest of the world ($1.41B) and United States ($1.05B) 

 

Here are visualizations showing Turkey's trade data:

  

1.) Exports:

 

2.) Imports:

 

If you wish to see the visualizations in more detail, please click here.

 

Turkey's economy grew by 4.5 percent in 2023 and is projected to grow by 3.0 percent in 2024.  Turkey has a significant inflation issue; inflation decreased from 57.7% in January 2023 to 38.2% in June 2023. However, inflation escalated to 68.5% by March 2024, driven by factors including the lira's depreciation, significant minimum wage hikes, tax adjustments, and strong demand.  Public debt is around 30 percent of GDP. 

  

While Turkey certainly isn't one of the world's most influential economies, it still has a significant presence in the world's trading ecosystem and its interest in joining the BRICS alliance will certainly impact the economic power of the group.  What will be interesting to watch in the future is whether Turkey abandons its membership in the OECD and becomes part of the global anti-United States dollar "club" as a means of preventing Washington from influencing their domestic agenda.  It will also be fascinating to watch the machinations as NATO negotiates the new reality of having a partner state that currently forms a key part of its bulwark against the "Russian hordes" joining the "evil empire" as part of a move to reduce the power of the aging unipolar global alliance.