Over the past decade, the world has seen a substantial move toward a new liberal (or Neo-liberal) world order, particularly throughout much of Europe, in Canada under the Trudeau government, the United States under the Biden Administration, New Zealand and Australia in particular. This strategy has brought about the term "progressive" when it comes to the Neo-liberal self-referencing and the term "far right" when it comes to describing anyone who doesn't subscribe to their "progressive" agenda. One may well ask where this liberal world order came from given that so many advanced nations seemed to adopt this agenda at roughly the same time. Here is the answer:
Dating back to April 2016, the World Economic Forum which is "committed to improving the state of the world" released the "Strengthening the Liberal World Order" white paper which was proposed by the Global Agenda Council on the United States and supposedly did not necessarily represent the views of the World Economic Forum despite the fact that the white paper was published under the auspices of the WEF.
In this posting, I will be focussing on how the promoters of the liberal world order intend to use energy, the driver of the global economy, to ensure that their liberal view of the world remains intact.
The white paper opens by noting that the world order that was created in the aftermath of the Second World War produced "immense benefits" for people across the planet, eliminating much of the world's poverty and emplacing a system of democracy in more than 100 nations. The authors state that it is thanks to the global efforts of the United States that the liberal world order was created and maintained. The liberal order states that the rights of the individual are primary and that governments are responsible for protecting these rights and that "(a) democratic government, in particular, offers the best chance for human dignity, justice and freedom."
Here is a quote from the white paper about the importance of the liberal world order:
"...the authors of this report are confident in their conviction that the liberal world order offers the best hope for meeting human aspirations, both material and spiritual, and for calling forth the very best in people across the world."
The paper notes that the liberal world order is under threat by both authoritarian governments, anti-liberal fundamentalist movements, shifts in the global economy and changes in the physical environment (i.e. global climate change). Here is another quote:
"The turmoil and multi-sided conflict in the Middle East; Russia’s invasion and seizure of territory in Ukraine; the pressures on the liberal political and economic order in Europe; China’s growing power and ambition in Asia; the tenuousness of the international consensus on free trade and multilateral economic institutions – all these combine to put this order at risk."
The present liberal world order has been created and lead by the United States, in large part, and the authors believe that strengthening and preserving this order will require a renewed American leadership in the international system:
"The present world order has been forged by many hands and peoples, but the role of the United States in both shaping and defending it has been critical. American military power, the dynamism of the US economy and the great number of close alliances and friendships that the United States enjoys with other powers and peoples have provided the critical architecture in which this liberal world order has flourished. A weakening of America’s commitment or its capabilities, or both, would invariably lead to its collapse."
The authors suggest that there are four "baskets of policies" which are necessary to preserve the liberal world order:
1.) Strengthening and Adapting the Liberal Economic Order
2.) Strengthening the International Security Order
3.) Taking Advantage of the Energy Revolution
4.) Playing to America’s Strengths in Education, Innovation and Entrepreneurship
As I stated previously, for the purposes of this posting, I am going to focus on only one "basket". With climate change being a significant part of the current neoliberal mantra, let's look at what the paper has to say about energy and the energy revolution. The authors believe that there are three ways that the liberal world order can take advantage of the energy revolution, given the transformation of the energy situation in the United States thanks to hydraulic fracturing and the increased use of renewables which has resulted in a reduced dependence on oil:
1.) Help European and Asian allies diversify energy sources, especially in gas by reducing Europe's dependence on Russian natural gas. This could be accomplished by increasing exports of American LNG (which, of course, will benefit American oil and gas companies).
2.) Leverage US influence, productive capacities and declining energy prices to increase pressure on energy-exporting autocratic nations hostile to the liberal world order including Russia and Iran which are both heavily reliant on hydrocarbon exports for their economic well-being.
3.) Support and hasten the weakening of OPEC and other energy cartels by creating investment environments that support increased production and therefore diversified supplies on the global market and working with other producers to support liberal economic policies
Here's another quote from the white paper:
"America’s energy revolution provides a tremendous opportunity to solidify a liberal international order based on strong alliances with key allies in Europe and Asia, weakening revisionist forces in Russia and elsewhere, and fostering market conditions for the trade in oil and gas. The energy revolution alone will not be sufficient to secure these outcomes, but it provides the United States with a major new advantage in seeking to bring them about."
Keeping in mind that this white paper was released in early 2016, developments in the energy market since then have shown this analysis to be flawed. Certainly, Russia has had to find other markets for its natural gas since the Ukraine war began in February 2022 and it found a willing market in China. The final section of the Power of Siberia natural gas pipeline was recently completed and is expected to reach its full annual design capacity of 38 billion cubic metres in 2025, roughly 9 percent of China's consumption as shown here:
China is now on track to become the largest market for Russian natural gas, overtaking Europe. While the United States has become the primary supplier of LNG to Europe, supplying 45 percent of Europe's LNG needs in 2024, its liberal world order-preserving actions to reduce Europe's reliance on Russian natural gas has worked...at a price. In fact, if climate change mitigation was even a small part of the goal, that has been another failure. The carbon footprint of LNG is 28 percent greater than that of coal for shorter cruises and 46 percent higher for longer cruises. Here are three graphics which explain the issue:
We can see from this brief summary of the "Strengthening the Liberal World Order" white paper that the progressives who are trying to promote and preserve the American-led post-World War 2 world order are not necessarily capable of ascertaining the unintended consequences of their agenda. This is particularly the case for energy markets and climate change; while the solution to preserve the liberal world order by destroying Russia's energy industry may have seemed ironclad, in fact, the result of the actions of the progressives among us merely assisted in creating a new order led by the combination of Russia's energy and China's economic power and has left Europe at the mercy of hydrocarbons that are even more polluting than Russia's natural gas.
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