Polling Syrians and Iraqis - What They Want and Who They Trust

While Syria and Iraq have been headline news in the mainstream and not-so-mainstream media for months, we rarely get any information about how Syrians and Iraqis feel about the current conditions in their civil war-torn nations.  Fortunately, ORB International has surveyed both Syrians and Iraqis and has provided us with a sense of how both groups feel about the current situation in their nations.  ORB has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2004 and in Syria since 2013 with more than 2 million face-to-face meetings throughout Iraq over the 11 year period.  Let's look at the numbers starting with Iraq and closing with Syria.  Please note that I have not included "refused to answer or don't read responses" so the totals presented will not add up to 100 percent.

Iraq:

In Iraq, a total of 1234 respondents were interviewed on key issues as follows:

1.) Do you feel that Iraq is heading in the right or wrong direction?

- 25 percent said that Iraq was heading in the right direction

- 66 percent said that Iraq was heading in the wrong direction

2.) Do you support or oppose the airstrikes by coalition forces which are happening in Iraq currently and how strongly do you support or oppose these strikes?

- 13 percent strongly supported the airstrikes

- 31 percent somewhat supported the airstrikes

- 31 percent somewhat opposed the airstrikes

- 25 percent opposed the airstrikes

3.) Do you think that the influence of the Iraqi army is positive or negative on the matters in Iraq?

- 37 percent said that the influence was positive

- 32 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 22 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 9 percent said that the influence was negative

4.) Do you think that the influence of the Iraqi Parliament is positive or negative on the matters in Iraq?

- 3 percent said that the influence was positive

- 15 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 48 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 33 percent said that the influence was negative

5.) Do you think that the influence of ISIL is positive or negative on the matters in Iraq?

- 1 percent said that the influence was positive

- 4 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 10 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 84 percent said that the influence was negative

6.) Do you think that the influence of Iran is positive or negative on the matters in Iraq?

- 17 percent said that the influence was positive

- 25 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 14 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 40 percent said that the influence was negative

7.) Do you think that the influence of the coalition against ISIL is positive or negative on the matters in Iraq?

- 7 percent said that the influence was positive

- 24 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 35 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 27 percent said that the influence was negative

8.) According to your view, is a military or political solution the best solution for Iraq's current crisis?

- 49 percent said that a military solution was the best solution

- 51 percent said that a political solution was the best solution

9.) Is splitting the nation into autonomous regions that can govern themselves the best solution to the crisis in Iraq?

- 26 percent supported splitting Iraq into autonomous regions

- 74 percent opposed splitting Iraq into autonomous regions

10.) Do you prefer what your life was like before ISIL took over parts of Mosul and other Iraqi governments or what your life is like now?

- 88 percent preferred their life prior to ISIL's takeover

- 12 percent preferred their life after ISIL's takeover

11.) There are many reasons explaining the presence of ISIL in Iraq.  Do you agree or disagree that ISIL is an American-made group?

- 56 percent agreed

- 29 percent somewhat agreed

- 7 percent somewhat disagreed

- 3 percent disagreed

This question is of particular importance.  Of the potential responses to the question about who created ISIL, the largest proportion agreed that ISIL was American-made followed by the wrong policies of the al-Maliki government and the sectarian congestion that has occurred in both Syria and Iraq.

Syria:

In Syria, a total of 1365 respondents were interviewed on key issues as follows:

1.) Do you feel that Syria is heading in the right or wrong direction?

- 37 percent said that Syria was heading in the right direction

- 57 percent said that Syria was heading in the wrong direction

2.) Do you support or opposed the airstrikes by coalition forces which are happening in Syria currently and how strongly do you support or oppose these strikes?

- 26 percent strongly supported the airstrikes

- 22 percent somewhat supported the airstrikes

- 26 percent somewhat opposed the airstrikes

- 23 percent opposed the airstrikes

3.) Do you think that the influence of Bashar al-Assad is positive or negative in the matters in Syria?

- 26 percent said that the influence was positive

- 21 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 19 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 30 percent said that the influence was negative

4.) Do you think that the influence of ISIL is positive or negative in the matters in Syria?

- 7 percent said that the influence was positive

- 14 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 28 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 48 percent said that the influence was negative 

5.) Do you think that the influence of the Nusra Front (al-Qaeda's affiliate in Syria) is positive or negative in the matters in Syria?

- 16 percent said that the influence was positive

- 19 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 22 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 41 percent said that the influence was negative

6.) Do you think that the influence of the Free Syrian Army is positive or negative in the matters in Syria?

- 18 percent said that the influence was positive

- 18 percent said that the influence was somewhat positive

- 20 percent said that the influence was somewhat negative

- 42 percent said that the influence was negative

7.) According to your view, is a military or political solution the best solution for Iraq's current crisis?

- 51 percent said that a military solution was the best solution

- 37 percent said that a political solution was the best solution

8.) Do you support or oppose the division of Syria?

- 27 percent support the division

- 70 percent oppose the division

9.) Do you prefer what your life was like before the crisis or what your life is like now?

- 40 percent preferred their life prior to the crisis

- 21 percent preferred their life after the crisis

10.) There are many reasons explaining the presence of ISIL in Syria.  Do you agree or disagree that ISIL is an American-made group?

- 38 percent agreed

- 44 percent somewhat agreed

- 11 percent somewhat disagreed

- 6 percent disagreed

Again, this question is of particular importance.  Of the potential responses to the question about who created ISIL, the largest proportion agreed that ISIL was American-made followed by the widespread sectarian politics in Arab countries and Turkey.

As we can see, the situation in both Iraq and Syria is deteriorating with a majority in both nations stating that their nations are heading in the wrong direction.  Most Iraqis and Syrians preferred their lives before the crisis, however, it is interesting to see that 21 percent of Syrians prefer their lives after the crisis.  As well, 21 percent of Syrian respondents stated that the influence of ISIL in Syria was positive.

There are three interesting points that I gleaned from this data:

1.) The high proportion of both Iraqis and Syrians that felt that ISIL was a creation of the Americans; in the case of Iraqis, 85 percent agreed that ISIL was an American creation and in the case of Syrians, 81 percent agreed that ISIL was an American creation.  This will make it very difficult for the United States to achieve any degree of trust with either Iraqis or Syrians.  

2.) Nearly half (47 percent) of Syrians still feel that Bashar al-Assad has a positive influence on Syria.  This will add to the complexity of unseating the man that the current administration in Washington has vilified for years.  

3.) America's current puppet government in Iraq has the support of only 18 percent of Iraqis.

As we can see from these results, the situation in both Iraq and Syria is extremely complicated.  Both Iraq and Syria are divided internally, however, the citizens of both nations have little desire to see their nations divided into smaller fiefdoms, a solution that has already being bantered about  as you can read here.