Tuesday, June 16, 2020

Fear of a Second Civil War in the United States

While I have posted on this subject before, it seems quite pertinent to revisit the subject given the recent race-driven, anti-police demonstrations throughout the United States.


As it has done in the past, Rasmussen Reports has surveyed Americans, asking the following question:


"How likely is it that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years - very likely, somewhat likely, not very likely or not at all likely?"


The results of the survey of 1000 likely voters conducted between June 11, 2020 and June 14, 2020have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points with a 95 percent level of confidence.


Let's go back in time for a moment.  In June 2018, Rasmussen asked the same question of likely voters and found the following when asked about the likelihood of a second American civil war in the next five years (note that the results do not add up to 100 percent):


- 11 percent very likely


- 20 percent likely


- 30 percent unlikely


- 29 percent not at all likely


When broken down further, Rasmussen found that 37 percent of Democrats were fearful of a second civil war compared to 32 percent of Republicans.  Among non-affiliated voters, 26 percent believed that a second civil war was likely.  Among Blacks, 44 percent thought that a second civil war was likely compared to 28 percent of whites and 36 percent of other minorities.


Moving ahead to 2020, Rasmussen found the following when respondents were asked about the likelihood of a second civil war in the next five years:


- 9 percent very likely


- 25 percent likely


While the percentage of respondents who believed that a second civil war was very likely dropped by 2 percentage points over the two year period, the percentage of respondents who believed that a second civil war was either very likely or likely rose by 3 percentage points to 34 percent over the two year period.


When broken down by political affiliation, Rasmussen found significant changes; in 2020, only 28 percent of Democrats were fearful of a secondcivil war (down 9 percentage points) and 40 percent of Republicans were fearful of a second civil war (up 8 percentage points).  As well, 38 percent of non-affiliated voters were fearful of a second civil war, up a very significant 12 percentage points from 2018.


It is interesting to note that just over one-third of Americans believe that a second civil war is likely in the next five years.  There is no doubt that the United States is rapidly turning into the Untied States with each side finding themselves further and further apart in their beliefs and their agenda.

1 comment:

    Another good book about the upcoming revolution in the USA is Greer's 2015 book "Twilight's Last Gleaming".