Tuesday, July 28, 2020

NATO 2030 - What Lies Ahead for the Alliance

While the world grapples with the war against the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the drums of another war continue to beat loudly.


On June 8, 2020, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg launched NATO 2030, a "conversation" about strengthening the Alliance in "an increasingly competitive world" (i.e. in a world that is no longer unipolar, thanks to Russia and China).


According to NATO's 2030 website, NATO 2030 is:


"...about making sure our Alliance remains ready today to face tomorrow's challenges.  And how NATO will keep us safe in the next decade and beyond."


Here are Stoltenberg's reflections:


Here is his tweet regarding NATO 2030:



Note that NATO 2030 is being launched in cooperation with the Atlantic Council (a "nonpartisan organization that galvanizes U.S. global leadership...") and the German Marshall Fund of the United States (which "strengthens transatlantic cooperation on regional, national and global challenges...").


Here is a key quote from Stoltenberg's musings:


"COVID-19 has changed our lives in ways we could barely imagine.  And it has magnified existing trends and tensions when it comes to our security.  Russia continues its military activities unabated.  ISIL and other terrorist groups are emboldened.  Both state and non-state actors promote disinformation and propaganda.  And the rise of China is fundamentally shifting the global balance of power.  Heating up the race for economic and technological supremacy.  Multiplying the threats to open societies and individual freedoms.  And increasing the competition over our values and our way of life.  NATO 2030 is about how we adapt to this new normal.  And to do this we must:


Stay strong militarily.

Be more united politically.

And take a broader approach globally."

Note that he invokes the threats from China and Russia in the same sentence as he refers to ISIL and other terrorist groups.


How will NATO's global approach evolve?  Here is another key quote:


"As we look to 2030, we need to work even more closely with like-minded countries.  Like Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea.  To defend the global rules and institutions that have kept us safe for decades.  To set norms and standards."


Not only is NATO content with being a European - North America alliance but, with the growing influence of China, NATO is looking to expand into the Pacific region.


Why does the world need NATO 2030?  Back in December 2019, NATO leaders released the London Declaration at their North Atlantic Council meeting held in London.  Here is a key excerpt:


"We, as an Alliance, are facing distinct threats and challenges emanating from all strategic directions.  Russia’s aggressive actions constitute a threat to Euro-Atlantic security; terrorism in all its forms and manifestations remains a persistent threat to us all.  State and non-state actors challenge the rules-based international order. Instability beyond our borders is also contributing to irregular migration. We face cyber and hybrid threats. 


NATO is a defensive Alliance and poses no threat to any country.  We are adapting our military capabilities, strategy, and plans across the Alliance in line with our 360-degree approach to security. We have taken decisions to improve the readiness of our forces to respond to any threat, at any time, from any direction.  We stand firm in our commitment to the fight against terrorism and are taking stronger action together to defeat it.  We are addressing and will continue to address in a measured and responsible way Russia’s deployment of new intermediate-range missiles, which brought about the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and which pose significant risks to Euro-Atlantic security.  We are increasing action to protect our freedoms at sea and in the air. We are further strengthening our ability to deter and defend with an appropriate mix of nuclear, conventional, and missile defence capabilities, which we continue to adapt.  As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance.  We are fully committed to the preservation and strengthening of effective arms control, disarmament, and non-proliferation, taking into account the prevailing security environment.   Allies are strongly committed to full implementation of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in all its aspects, including nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation, and the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.  We remain open for dialogue, and to a constructive relationship with Russia when Russia’s actions make that possible." (my bolds)


This declaration gives us a sense of where NATO is headed, despite their proclamation that they are a "defensive Alliance" that "poses no threat to any country".  


At this meeting, NATO's leadership invited Stoltenberg to "lead a forward-looking reflection process to strengthen NATO's political dimension".  To support him, Stoltenberg has appointed a group of ten experts as follows:



Stoltenberg first met with the group of ten experts on April 8, 2020 as shown here:



Since the United States is the main driver behind NATO, it is obvious that Washington is feeling threatened by the growing global influence of both Russia and China as the world becomes decreasingly Americentric and increasingly multipolar and is using NATO as its puppet to ensure that the post-World War II American-led rules-based international order remains intact.



  1. The key sentence here is "Be more united politically."

    Me thinks that there is something rotten in Denmark...

  2. "NATO 2030 - What Lies Ahead for the Alliance"

    I am convinced you made a mistake.
    It should read: What lies are ahead for the Alliance.