Thursday, July 15, 2021

Hospitalization and Deaths - Vaccinated vs. Unvaccinated In England

 In this recently published document:

...Public Health England provides us with some interesting information on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness.  Let's take a close look at the findings of the authors.


The report looks at 60,624 Delta variant infections between February 1, and June 14, 2021.  Here is a table showing vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease for the Alpha and Delta variants combined for doses 1 and 2:



Here is a table showing vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization for the Alpha and Delta variants for doses 1 and 2:


The data would certainly appear to suggest that the COVID-19 vaccines have been quite effective (particularly after the second dose) at reducing symptoms and hospitalizations although the effectiveness of the current COVID-19 vaccines are less effective at preventing symptomatic disease related to the Delta variant than they are for the Alpha variant.

Here is the most interesting table which shows the number of delta cases which either died or required emergency care between February 1, 2021 and June 14, 2021 among unvaccinated, people who were vaccinated with one dose 21 or less days previously, one dose 21 or more days previously and those who were fully vaccinated 14 days or more previously:


A total of 35,521 Delta variant cases were among the unvaccinated compared to 4,087 cases which were fully vaccinated.  That said, it is somewhat concerning that there were thousands of cases of the Delta variant despite the fact that the individuals were fully vaccinated at least two weeks prior to the test.  


Let's compare the hospitalization rates for the unvaccinated versus the fully vaccinated:


Unvaccinated - 35,521 people with 527 or 1.48 percent required hospitalization


Fully Vaccinated - 4,087 people with 84 or 2.05 percent required hospitalization


Now, let's compare the death rates for the unvaccinated versus the fully vaccinated:


Unvaccinated - 35,521 people with 34 or 0.133 percent dying


Fully Vaccinated - 4,087 people with 26 or 0.636 percent dying


As you can see, when it comes to the Delta variant, while there are far more infections among the unvaccinated, those who are infected and unvaccinated are less likely to require hospitalization and nearly 5 times less likely to die than their vaccinated peers. 


Now, let's look at a study from 2012 where laboratory animals were injected with experimental coronavirus vaccines after SARS emerged in China in 2002:

In this study, a variety of potential candidate coronavirus vaccines for humans with or without alum adjuvant were tested; a VLP (virus-like particle) vaccine, an NHP whole virus vaccine and an rDNA-produced S protein vaccines.  The vaccines were injected into both ferrets and mice.  All of the vaccines induced serum neutralizing antibodies with increasing dosages and the presence of alum, resulting in significantly increased responses. 

Here are the results as quoted from the study with challenge meaning that the mice were exposed to the live SARS-CoV virus:


"Significant reductions of SARS-CoV two days after challenge was seen for all vaccines and prior live SARS-CoV. All mice exhibited histopathologic changes in lungs two days after challenge including all animals vaccinated (Balb/C and C57BL/6) or given live virus, influenza vaccine, or PBS suggesting infection occurred in all."


Here are the conclusions of the study:


"These SARS-CoV vaccines all induced antibody and protection against infection with SARS-CoV. However, challenge of mice given any of the vaccines led to occurrence of Th2-type immunopathology suggesting hypersensitivity to SARS-CoV components was induced. Caution in proceeding to application of a SARS-CoV vaccine in humans is indicated. 

In other words, the animals that were injected with these experimental coronavirus vaccines developed enhanced lung disease because the vaccines induced hypersensitivity to the components of SARS-Co-V.


Since the current crop of COVID-19 vaccines is still in Phase 3 trials no matter what we are being led to believe, governments, the media and Big Pharma have no idea whether the same enhancement will occur in humans.  If so, this may be at least a partial explanation for the findings in England where fully vaccinated individuals who contract the Delta variant of the COVID-19 virus have a higher hospitalization and death rate than those who are not vaccinated.  If so, this is a very concerning issue, particularly given that billions of doses are now "resident" in human beings around the world.


Recent data from Israel's Ministry of Health:

A quote from the United Kingdom's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) from a meeting held on July 7, 2021 (point 9):

The latest from Dr. John B. showing the relationship between high COVID vaccination rates and daily new COVID-19 cases:


  1. Constructive criticism here.
    The reasoning method in this post is highly questionable.
    A look at the data:
    The data shows (what it was intended to do) that vaccines are highly effective and continue to be so, even with variants (including the delta one).
    When mining for data for hypothesis generation, one as to be extra careful about data sampling and, often, other research work is necessary to prove one's hypothesis, especially if counterintuitive.
    In this specific case, you are using and comparing retrospective data with the implicit assumption that the two groups can be compared.
    The two groups are very likely very different and any conclusion based on comparing the two is highly suspicious.
    For example, the unvaccinated group is very likely younger, likely healthier and possibly had higher relative exposure to the Covid-19 virus "in the wild". These variables would explain the relatively lower morbidity and mortality in the unvaccinated group.
    Apologies for the pushback but this has been a recurrent theme in your covid posts. There is nothing wrong in combining the deductive and the inductive methods for hypothesis generation but there is a risk of starting with a hypothesis and then to mine for data that fits with the narrative.
    It's OK to believe that vaccines are not the solution but objective data shows that Covid-19 vaccines have resulted in a massive decrease in disease burden and continue to be associated with a convincing safety profile.

  2. Thank you for your input Carl. You do make me think and that's a good thing.

    Sadly, there is so much lacking in this dataset that we don't know - ages, comorbidities etcetera so I drew conclusions (perhaps prematurely but other data from Israel is showing very a very similar relationship) from what was supplied.

    As far as the vaccines being safe, there we will have to agree to disagree. With the vaccines having killed tens of thousands of people in Europe, the UK and the United States (at least preliminary data shows that), there are many far-better qualified experts who are saying that the vaccine rollout should be halted until the cause and effect relationship is better understood. This is what happens when governments hastily rolled out the incompletely tested vaccines without understanding any of the potential negative adverse reactions. We certainly cannot trust Big Pharma for that information.

    Might I suggest that you read this about the H1N1 vaccine as I found it illuminating?

  3. More information just came to light from the SAGE meeting notes dated July 7, 2021 about the relationship between vaccination rates and the creation of variants - see point that I have added to the posting:

  4. What's happening in Israel and the UK is that vaccinated people now make up the large majority of the at-risk population and given an efficacy of 90 to 95% (to catch the disease), it's mathematically possible that cases in absolute numbers will come fairly equally from the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Still, in those places, disease burden, even if you catch the disease, your likelihood of getting sick and dying is diminished by the vaccines. The cases (rising) to hospitalizations and deaths has partially decoupled.
    In the US, for the recent past (up to May at least), there is strong data that shows that 95%+ of hospitalized Covid patients were unvaccinated. Sadly, the hospitalization rates in US have shown a very clear inverse correlation with vaccination rates (both at the state and county levels). Sadly, these were/are preventable deaths caused by ideology.
    The death numbers mentioned ("vaccines having killed") do not survive the test of analysis once cause of death investigations are carried out. Vaccines have been shown to be very safe.
    The SAGE comment should be understood as, despite high vaccination rates, residual high prevalence in the unvaccinated is the best way to allow the development of variants.
    What is illuminating about the healthcare personnel link?

  5. I've been looking at PHE's technical briefings as well. Buried in the tables is VOC data separated by age. Bottom line, 90% of Delta cases are among those <50, while 90% of deaths are among the 10% who are >50.

    In the older group, cases are lower in the unvaccinated than vaccinated, though this could be because so many more older people have been vaccinated.

    Fatality rates are striking in those older than 50: 0.9% for those with one dose, 2.2% for those with both doses and 5.6% for the unvaccinated.

    I would have loved to see more stratification by age group and information on comorbidities. However, as it is, the split between those younger and older than 50 provides some good insights that simply can't be seen when you look at cases as one group.

  6. The biggest test of the vaccine will be the fall of 2021 and the winter of 2022 when influenza season takes hold. If ADE proves to be a real problem for theses vaccines, then we'll know for sure about their value as a prophylactic against SARS-CoV-2.

    Thanks to all for your input.