Which is the Greater Threat - Russia or the United States?

In Pew Research Center's most recent Global Attitudes and Trends, Pew looked at how 26 nations around the world viewed threats to the globe. While the authors of the study looked at many threats including climate change, ISIS, cyberattacks, North Korea's nuclear power and the global economy, they also looked at two threats which I found particularly interesting given the seemingly endless growth of diplomatic strains between Russia and the United States.  In this posting, I would like to provide you with data for all 26 nations comparing the percentage of people that feel that American power and influence is a major threat to their nation compared to the percentage of people that feel that Russia's power and influence is a major threat to their nation.

Here is a table showing the percentage of people who feel that the United States is the biggest threat to their nation compared to the percentage of people who feel that Russia is the biggest threat to their nation noting that Americans and Russians were not asked about the threat posed by their own nations:

As you can see, when the results from the United States and Russia are compared, respondents from 17 out of 26 nations believe that the United States is a bigger threat than Russia (albeit, three nations show only a one or two percentage point difference between the two) and 7 nations believe that Russia is a bigger threat than the United States.  When looking at the individual results, it is interesting to see that a very substantial 67 percent of South Koreans believe that the United States is a major threat to their security compared to only 44 percent who believed that Russia was the major threat.  Two-thirds or 66 percent of Japanese believe that the United States is a great threat  compared to only 49 percent that believe Russia to be a great threat to their nation.  Lastly, even though Germany is ground zero for a Russia vs. Europe war, 49 percent of Germans believe that the United States is a major threat compared to only 30 percent who believe that Russia is a major threat to their national security.  Despite what Washington would have us believe about the Russian Bear and Vladimir Putin, these numbers tell us a great deal about the current state of the world and its relationship with the United States.

Here is a bar graph which shows the data in graphic form with nations that feel that the United States is the greater threat on the positive side of the x-axis and nations that feel that Russia is the greater threat on the negative side of the x-axis and the difference between the two results:

I found it particularly interesting that nations like Germany, Japan, Mexico and South Korea which have traditionally been viewed as pro-American overwhelmingly found that the United States was a greater threat to their nation than Russia.  Not surprisingly, only a very small 15 percent of Israelis felt that the United States was a greater threat compared to 28 percent who felt that Russia was a greater threat, however the percentage of Israelis that are concerned about American power is up from only 9 percent in 2013.  

Looking back in time, more people now believe that the United States is a greater threat to their nation than in 2013 and 2017; in 2018, a median of 45 percent of all respondents believed that the United States was a major threat to their nation, up from 38 percent in 2017 and 25 percent in 2013.  Here is a table showing the three year comparisons for all nations:

Once again, it is interesting to observe that nations like France and Germany that have traditionally been viewed as pro-American have seen the highest increase in their assessment of the threat posed by American power.

The growing power and influence wielded by the United States is now rather widely viewed by the world as a far greater threat than the power and influence wielded by Russia, particularly when one looks back to 2013.  Respondents in just over 70 percent of the 26 nations in the study feel that America forms a greater threat to their home nation than the much-vilified Russia, a result that is not terribly surprising given the events of the past two years in Washington.

The Health of Brand USA

With the Trump Administration taking a great deal of criticism for its policies, it begs the question; how has the American brand been impacted.  In Pew's most recent versions of its Global Attitudes and Trends survey, we get a sense of how the public in many nations regard the United States, a view that is quite important in this time of endless criticisms of many nations by Washington.

The poll was taken during the first quarter of 2017 and respondents were interviewed by telephone or with a face-to-face interview.  Between 1000 and 1500 people in 37 nations took part in the survey with a total of 40.477 respondents.  Pew Research Center international studies target the permanent adult population (aged 18 and older) with attempts to cover as much of the adult population as possible, limiting their coverage to areas that are extremely remote or subject to insecurity (i.e. parts of Pakistan).  The margin of error is generally between 3.0 and 5.0 percentage points 19 times out of 20.  With that background, let's look at how the world views "Brand America".

Let's start with a look at how various regions and countries view the United States:

A global median of 49 percent of respondents held a favourable view of the United States, a significant drop from the median of 64 percent during the later years of the Obama Administration.  Let's look at a breakdown by region:

1.) Europe - the median for Europe was 52 percent unfavourable and 46 percent favourable.  Four out of ten EU countries surveyed had a more positive view of the United States; Poland (most favourable at 73 percent), Hungary, Italy and the United Kingdom.  The remaining six nations surveyed had a negative view with Germany having the highest unfavourable rating at 62 percent.

2.) Asia - the median for Asia was 57 percent favourable and 23 percent unfavourable with all 7 nations surveyed having a more positive view of the United States.  The the most positive view of the United States was held by Vietnam at 84 percent with only 11 percent negative. 

3.) Middle East - the median for the Middle East was 64 percent unfavourable and 27 percent favourable.  Only one of the five nations surveyed had a positive view of the United States; Israel at 81 percent.  The most unfavourable rating came from Jordanians with an 82 percent unfavourable view.

4.) Africa - the median for Africa was 56 percent favourable and 26 percent unfavourable with all six nations having a positive view of the United States.  The most positive view of the United States was held by Nigeria with a 69 percent favourability rating.

5.) South and Central America - the median for South and Central America was 47 percent favourable and 38 percent unfavourable.  Four of the seven nations surveyed had a more positive view of the United States; Columbia (most favourable at 51 percent), Peru, Brazil and Venezuela.  The remaining three nations had a negative view of the United States with Mexico having the highest unfavourable rating at 65 percent.

6.) Canada - 43 percent favourable, 51 percent unfavourable.

7.) Russia - 41 percent favourable, 52 percent unfavourable.

It is interesting to see how outsiders' view of the United States varies with age.  In 16 of the 37 nations surveyed in 2017, young adults between the ages of 18 and 29 have a more favourable view of the United States than their older counterparts, sometimes by a very wide margin.  For example in France, 64 percent of people between the ages of 18 and 29 viewed the United States positively compared to only 40 percent of people aged 50 and older.  As well, there is a gender gap with men expressing a more positive opinion of the United States that women in ten nations; in the case of Australia, 58 percent of men viewed the United States positively compared to only 38 percent of women.

Let's close with a table showing how much the world has changed its view of the United States with the change in political leadership in 2017:

As you can see, of the 37 nations in the study, respondents in only six nations have a more positive feeling about the United States since the Trump Administration took control with Russia heading the group with a 26 percentage point improvement in favourability, rising from 15 percent to 41 percent despite the ongoing anti-Russia sentiment in the United States.  On the other hand, Mexicans view of the United States took the biggest plunge with favourability dropping by 36 percentage points from 66 percent to 30 percent.

It is interesting to see how Brand America is under pressure during the first six months of the Trump Administration.  While nearly half of respondents around the world still give a positive overall rating to the United States image, there has been a substantial growth in the number of people, particularly among America's traditional allies in Europe and the Middle East (save Israel), who believe that the United States is not following a favourable path.  That is particularly evident when one looks at Donald Trump's international confidence rating as shown here:

Global Confidence in the Trump Presidency

An interesting poll done by the Pew Research Center takes an international look at confidence in the Trump presidency, comparing it to the level of confidence in the U.S. presidency at the end of the Obama Administration.  Here is a summary of their findings.

The Pew poll, the Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey, generally questioned between 1000 and 1500 people in 37 nations around the world with a total of 40,447 respondents between February 16, 2017 and May 8, 2017..  The poll looked at several key issues; the favourability of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel and Zi Jinping, the favourability of the United States and the favourability of the Trump Administration's policies.  

Let's start by looking at the global confidence in Donald Trump and his ability to do the "right thing" when it comes to global affairs and how this confidence/lack of confidence has changed from the end of the Obama Administration:

As you can see, globally speaking, there is a significant growth in the number of international respondents who do not trust the new U.S. president when it comes to global affairs.  

Here is a graphic showing a comparison of how each nation in the survey views the Trump Administration vs. the Obama Administration when it comes to confidence in handling global affairs:

Respondents from only two nations out of 37 had more confidence in Donald Trump's ability to conduct international affairs than they did at the end Barack Obama's terms; Russia and Israel, an interesting turn of events given the anti-Russia sentiment that is currently pervasive in Washington.  It is interesting to observe that some of America's longest-term allies like Germany, South Korea, France, Canada and the United Kingdom have the highest declines in confidence from one administration to the next.  This is particularly important for Canada, America's next-door neighbour and its major trading partner.

Let's now look at how the international approval rating for Donald Trump compares to that of China's Xi Jinping, Germany's Angela Merkel and Russia's Vladimir Putin when it comes to global affairs:

As you can see, globally speaking, Donald Trump gets the most negative responses when it comes to confidence in his global affairs agenda.  While his low level of confidence is only slightly lower than that of Vladimir Putin (5 percentage points) and Xi Jinping (6 percentage points), the number of respondents that have no confidence in his global affairs agenda are far higher than either Mr. Putin (15 percentage points lower) and Mr. Jinping (19 percentage points lower).

Let's close by looking at a global view of Donald Trump's personal character.  Here is a listing of both positive and negative characteristics and what percentage of respondents feel that each characteristic is most closely associated with Mr. Trump:

It is very interesting to see that a majority (55 percent) of respondents felt that Donald Trump was a strong leader.  Unfortunately, these are outweighed by the number of respondents who feel that his is dangerous, intolerant and arrogant.

Obviously, the international community's views on the current Trump Administration will have a significant impact on how outsiders view the United States.  Only time will tell whether Donald Trump will be able to turn around international sentiment about his presidency; my suspicion is that he really could care less what the international community and its leaders feel about his agenda or his personality for that matter.  That said, it is still interesting to see how the international community views the first few months of his term in the Oval Office, particularly when we compare it to the final days of the Obama Administration.