The recent test of North
Korea's Pukguksong-2 or PGS-2 missile was a significant step in North Korea's
(DPRK) missile armaments program. The PGS-2, a land-based, solid
propellant missile is a game-changer when it comes to survivability in war time
as we will see in this posting which looks at North Korea’s missile program as
a whole, focusing on the game-changing test in February 2017.
Let's open by looking at
North Korea's current ballistic missile inventory from the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, excluding the PGS-2 which is
still in its testing phase:
Here
is a table showing the classes, ranges and status of all North Korean missiles
in order from shortest to longest range:
According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative
(NTI), the three-stage Taepodong-2 has the potential to deliver a small payload
to the west coast of continental North America. Here is a map showing the operating range of
several of North Korea's missiles:
Here is a graphic showing
the timing of North Korea's missile testing program:
As you can see, there has
been a very significant increase in the number of tests since 2009 (excluding
2010). During Kim Jong-un's five year term as North Korea's Supreme
Leader, there have been more missile tests than there were during the period
from 2004 to 2011.
In February 2017, North
Korea tested its Pukguksong-2 (PGS-2) missile, a land-based variation of its
submarine-based Pukguksong-1 (PGS-1 or KN-11) missile. Here
is a North Korean news video, proudly announcing the test launch of the PGS-2 on February 12, 2017:
In contrast to most other
North Korean missiles, the medium-diameter PGS-2 is a solid-propellant variant.
As was apparent in the video, the PGS-2 is launched from a tracked
transporter erector launcher or TEL, the only tracked TEL in use in any modern
day defense system. This provides North Korean forces with several
advantages:
1.) The PGS-2 system has
a shorter launch preparation time of between 15 to 45 minutes compared to the
60 minutes or more required to set up and fuel a liquid-propellant system.
This means that no additional fuel trucks will be required, reducing the
number of vehicles involved, making it more difficult for surveillance
satellites to detect.
2.) The tracked TEL used
with the PGS-2 system will be able to access the remote and rugged terrain of
North Korea's interior.
3.) The PGS-2 system will
be more survivable in the event of an attack than its more vulnerable
liquid-propellant system. This will give the DPRK a much more survivable
second strike capability which could act as a deterrent.
The Pukguksong-2 and its
submarine-launched variant, the Pukguksong-1, are helping North Korea to put in
place a multifaceted first and second strike alternatives. While it still
hasn't developed a missile industry that is capable of producing large numbers
of weapons, it certainly appears that its missile industry is becoming
increasingly efficient.
No comments:
Post a Comment