China's Rocket Forces - A New Cold War Era

In honour of the 92nd anniversary of China's Armed Forces, the Chinese government recently released this video which shows a variety of armaments, particularly the nation's missile forces and, most importantly, for the first time we get a glimpse of the nation's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) command centre:

  

According to an analysis by Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, China's missile forces which are under the command of the Second Artillery Force have changed from a nuclear deterrent force based on intermediate- and medium-range missiles to a force of intercontinental- and medium-range nuclear forces in combination with a conventional missile force that is capable of conducting attacks at medium-range distances.  On December 31, 2015, PLARF was elevated to a position as a fourth military service alongside the People's Liberation Army, the People's Liberation Army Navy and the People's Liberation Army Air Force.  This move tells us how China's leadership is prioritizing the development and modernization of China's missile forces as a defensive force.

Let's look at some of China's most recent missile development programs.  Here is a graphic from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) showing one of China's missile training areas located in central Inner Mongolia as analyzed by Hans M. Kristensen:

The author has been able to identify at least 100 launch pads and at least eight launch unit camp sites covering an area of 400 square miles.  In addition, he has located another nuclear missile deployment are in central China as shown here:

In total, the Delingha and Da Qaidam sites have 58 launch pads over an area of 772 square miles.

Now, let's look at three of China's most capable missiles, the DF-31, DF-41 and the DF-26.

1.) The Dong Feng 31 family:  According to the Missile  Defense Advocacy Alliance, China's DF-31 and its DF-31A variant are intercontinental ballistic missiles that have been in service since 2000.  The DF-31 is a three-stage, solid-field intercontinental ballistic missile that can be fitted with either three or four MIRVs (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles) with yields of 20, 90 or 150 kilotons or a single one megaton warhead. The DF-31 has a range of 8000 kilometres and a accuracy of 300 metres CEP (circular error probable) in its road-launched variable and an accuracy of 150 metres CEP when a silo launch is used.  The DF-31A was operational in 2007 and has a solid-fuelled, three-stage missile that is also road-mobile and silo-based.  It has an increased range of 11,000 kilometres giving it the ability to strike all areas of Europe, Russia and the United States.  The DF-31B is under development and is expected to be operational by 2020.  Here is a summary of the DF-31:

2.) The Dong Feng 41: According to Missile Threat, China is also developing the DF-41, a road- and rail-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile.  It has an estimated range of 12,000 to 15,000 kilometres which would make it the world's longest-range missile in operation.  It will have a top speed of Mach 25 and will be capable of delivering up to 10 MIRVed (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle) warheads and will be able to strike the continental United States 30 minutes after launch.  Here is a summary of the DF-41:

The DF-41 will pose security challenges for the United States given its range, payload type and launch method.  The fact that the D-41 will be a road- and rail-mobile system will make it more difficult for U.S. intelligence agencies to track the locations of the missile since the missiles can be camouflaged as commercial road or rail vehicles.  As well, such mobility will allow China to hide its DF-41 missiles in tunnels, making it impossible for satellites to ascertain either the missile's location or the number of missiles that are in operation.

3.) The Dong Feng-26: In January 2019, the Chinese government (through the Global Times) published this report stating that the PLARF had carried out an exercise of its new DF-26 (Dong Feng intermediate-range missile in Northwest China:

The DF-26 was first unveiled to the Chinese public in September 2015 during a military parade held in Beijing as shown in this photo:

These completely mobile missiles are capable of targeting medium and large ships at sea and, because of their modular design, they can accommodate several configurations of conventional warheads as well as nuclear warheads.  The D-26 "ship killer" should serve to deter American ships from interfering in China's territorial waters in the South China Sea where China continues to develop various islands for military purposes.  The DF-26 has a range of 4500 kilometres which will allow China to target bases in Guam.  The Chinese also believe that these mobile missiles will be harder to target, particularly when they are launched from remote areas within the nation.  Here is a summary of the DF-26: 

China's ongoing development of the Dong Feng family of missiles, particularly the DF-31A, DF-31B and DF-41 significantly narrow the playing field when compared to both Russian and American missile technology.  China now has the ability to survive a missile attack by an adversary as well as creating a scenario where it will be increasingly difficult to remove China as a world power.  Looking back at the video at the beginning of this posting, it is a particularly frightening prospect to think that a multiple missile launch as depicted at the one minute and 30 second mark could be the proof that we are now entering a Cold War with very well-armed China.

The Russian and Chinese Responses to the Pentagon's Intermediate-Range Missile Test

After the U.S. withdrawal from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty or INF at the beginning of August 2019 because of so-called violations by the Russian, the United States was very quick to test a missile that would have fallen under the umbrella of the treaty which banned missiles with a range of between 500 and 5500 kilometres.  This treaty was put into place primarily because both the Soviet Union and the United States could easily conceal shorter-range, land-based nuclear cruise missiles that could strike with little or no warning.

Here is the announcement of the missile test which took place on San Nicolas Island in California by the Pentagon:

Here is a video showing the ground-based launch of the conventionally configured (i.e. not nuclear) cruise missile:

According to the United States Naval Institute (USNI), the missile was a modified Tomahawk Land Attack Missile or TLAM built by Raytheon and fired from a jury-rigged Lockheed Martin MK-41 Vertical Launch System cell mounted on a trailer, the same launcher used in the Aegis Ashore missile defense system which is currently used for launching interceptor missiles.  This system which has been set up in both Poland and Romania caused Russia to claim that the United States was in breach of the INF.  The speed with which the test took place after the collapse of the INF place suggests that the Pentagon had been working on the system well prior to Washington's announced withdrawal.  The test was overseen by the Pentagon's Strategic Capabilities Office which exists to alter existing weapons systems for new warfare capabilities.  According to the Pentagon, the test was a success with the missile accurately striking its target more than 500 kilometres away.

While we heard some vague rumblings from Russia about the launch, President Vladimir Putin had some interesting comments about the United States and its missile program:

1.) Press conference prior to a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on August 19, 2019:

"I would like to recall that it was not Russia that withdrew unilaterally from the ABM Treaty. We did not walk away from the INF Treaty either. Now, extending the Treaty on Strategic Offensive Arms (START III) is on the agenda. We have not yet seen any initiatives from our American partners although our proposals are on the table.

We are worried about the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and the potential militarisation of outer space, and here we have something to discuss. We would even like to discuss these items in detail to clear up the position of France on these vital issues, including space militarisation.

I would like to recall and repeat here in France that we assume a unilateral commitment on medium- and shorter-range missiles. If such attack systems are deployed by the US, we will also have them, but we will not deploy them anywhere unless US systems like this appear.

Regrettably, we have not yet heard any response to what we have expressed many times in public. We get the impression that they simply do not hear us. That said, I think the Europeans are interested in listening to us and responding appropriately."

2.) Joint news conference with Finland's President Sauli Niinisto on August 21, 2019:

Here's the question:

"Several days ago, the US tested a missile that was banned in the past by the INF Treaty. I know that security is a very sensitive issue for Europeans. I would like to ask you if you have discussed or are planning to discuss this new reality during your meeting."

Here is Mr. Putin's response:

"I can say we are disappointed with what we see. Obviously, testing a ground-based medium-range missile violates the INF Treaty and aggravates the situation in the word in general and in Europe in particular. I will explain what I mean.

First of all, the Americans tested this missile too fast, too soon after they announced their withdrawal from the treaty. In this sense, we have grounds to believe that the work on this missile (on the ‘landing’, as this is a sea missile) had begun long before they started searching for a pretext to withdraw from the treaty. To tell the truth, I have not heard the Americans saying they do not plan to deploy these missiles in Europe. If they did say so, that would be good, of course.

We have talked about this; I have said this many times, and two days ago, I said this in Marseilles. I can repeat it here in Helsinki: Russia will not deploy missiles – although, of course, we will be working on short-range and medium-range systems like this – unless corresponding missile systems produced in the US are deployed in a given region. We have not received any response from our American or European partners so far.

I am concerned that the tested missile, according to the Pentagon, is a Tomahawk, or a sea-based missile. It was reconfigured to be land-based. These missiles can be launched from existing launchers in Romania or ones that will soon be located in Poland. It only requires a change of software. I am not sure that our American friends will even inform their European partners about the software they use in these systems. For us this means a new threat appearing that we must respond to."

Not only was this test undertaken to send a message to Russia, it sent a strong message to China.  On August 3, 2019, U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper made comments about deploying missiles to Asia as shown in this article from Military Times:

According to the article, the Pentagon estimates that a low-flying cruise missile with a range of about 1,000 kilometres could be tested this month (as noted above) and could be ready for deployment in 18 months.  A ballistic missile with a range of between 3000 to 4000 kilometres would take five or more years to deploy.

The recent missile test by the United States and the comments by Mark Asper brought about this response from China's Daily News, an organ of China's Communist Party:

Note these sentences:

"China, an outsider to the INF regime, has refused to be dragged in and become a third party in Russia-US intermediate-range missile negotiations, as the premise and basis for trilateral arms control negotiations do not exist.

Trilateral talks would be to no purpose since not only has the current US administration shown it is willing to tear up any agreement whenever it feels like it, but even if it did take part in them, it would be doing so in bad faith, since its true intention in withdrawing from the INF Treaty is to make the treaty no longer binding on itself." (my bold)

As we can see, the testing of a medium-range missile by the United States has opened Pandora's box. A series of consequences have been created by this move, the most important of which is the launching of a new global arms race as both Russia and China are being forced to respond to protect their homelands from potential American aggression.  

Iran's Missile Programs and Israel's Hypocrisy

With the news that Iran has now exceeded its limits for 3.57 percent enriched uranium under the JCPOA as shown on this article from Iran's Mehr News Agency which quotes from Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif:

...other threats from Iran seem rather pertinent given Washington's penchant for war and Israel's non-stop hatred for all things Iranian.

Here is another news article from Mehr, quoting Mojtaba Zonnour, the Chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission:

In light of this threat, let's take a brief look at Iran's missile capabilities.  Thanks to technology from China, North Korea and Russia, Iran has been able to develop its missile technology.  According to Missile Threat, Iran has the following missiles in its inventory (sorted by range), noting the following abbreviations:

SRBM stands for short-range ballistic missiles (range of less than 1000 kilometres)

MRBM stands for medium-range ballistic missiles (range between 1000 and 2500 kilometres)

SLV stands for Space Launch Vehicle (used to place satellites into orbit)

Here is a graphic showing the missiles, noting that missiles with a range of greater than 800 kilometres are capable of reaching Israel:

A 2016 analysis by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy suggested that Iran's missile force, at that time, the largest missile force in the Middle East, could double or triple in size by the time the restrictions placed on Iran's nuclear program under the JCPOA are lifted on its termination date in October 2025.  Why is Iran so motivated to create a world-class missile force?  It was the Iran-Iraq War of 1980 to 1988 that convinced Iran's leadership that the best way to protect Iran was through the development of a missile defense system. By the last few months of the war, Iraq had the capability to hit Tehran with extended-range missiles which resulted in more than one-quarter of Tehran's population leaving their vulnerable capital city.

Iran has developed significant cloaking strategies for its missiles as shown on these photos:

1.) Underground silos:

2.) Camouflaged missile support vehicles (mobile Transport Erector Launcher or TEL):

On December 1, 2018, Iran announced that it had test launched its newest medium-range ballistic missile, a launch that U.S. Secretary of State and co-chief war hawk claimed was a violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 (which it wasn't according to this analysis).  The missile was likely a Khorramshahr which has a maximum range of between 2000 and 2200 kilometres when fitted with a 1000 kilogram payload.  If launched from the most northwestern tip of Iran, the missile would be capable of reaching Athens and Bucharest.  Not to be left out, a January 2019 letter from Ambassador Danny Danon, the Israeli representative to the United Nations, claimed that Iran has launched seven ballistic missiles between December 2018 and February 2019.  The letter claimed that Iran launched the aforementioned Khorramshahr, three Zolfaghars (the longest range version of the Fateh-100 ballistic missile), a Qiam (a derivative of the R-17 Scud missile, a Shabab-3 MRBM and another unidentified Scud variant.

Here is a video from a test launch of the Khorramshahr in September 2017:

Here is another letter from the Ambassador dated January 18, 2019 regarding concerns about Iran's launching of a Simorgh missile Satellite Launch Vehicle carrying a Payam satellite:

Here is yet another letter dated February 20, 2019 from Ambassador Danon to the President of the United Nations Security Council outlining Israel's concerns about Iran's missile program and recent tests of a Safir Satellite Launch Vehicle:

Here is the key quote:

"Although Iranian officials describe this activity as intended for civil space research and development, the reality is that these actions are dual-use, and constitute another stage in Iran's development of intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of carrying a nuclear payload. 

The international community should see this as one provocative ace in the larger context of Iranian hostile ballistic missile activity....

Iran's rogue efforts to advance its ballistic missile program threatens not only its neighboring countries and the wider Middle East, but much of Europe as well."

It would appear that, in Israel's eyes, Iran is not allowed to launch any of its own satellites either.

Israel's Foreign Affairs Ministry has also recently created this video which provides us with a very, very clear perspective on its views of Iran's missile capabilities and recent tests:

It's interesting to note how Israel appeals to the United Nations when it wants something for itself but manages to ignore the United Nations when it passes resolutions that condemn Israel for its behaviour against its Palestinian neighbours, isn't it?  The Ambassador also seems to have forgotten all about Israel's top secret, undeclared nuclear weapons program and its reluctance to sign the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and when asked to join by the United Nations in 2010, had this to say:

"As a non-signatory state of the NPT, Israel is not obligated by the decisions of this conference, which has no authority over Israel....  Given the distorted nature of this resolution, Israel will not be able to take part in its implementation."

While Israel is allowed to protect itself from outside forces with its nuclear weapons and tens of billions of dollars worth of American military equipment, it believes that Iran, a nation that has suffered from missile attacks launched by its next-door neighbour, does not have the same right.  That's rather hypocritical, isn't it? 

Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and America's Double Standard

While it didn't make anything close to headline news and, in light of the ongoing debate over North Korea and Iran and their ballistic missile programs, recent developments in the United States would clearly suggest that what is good for the goose (North Korea and Iran) is most definitely not good for the gander (the United States of America).

In recent years, there has been a series of tests of American intercontinental ballistic missiles launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) located in California.  Let's look at two recent examples.  Here is a video showing the operational test launching of an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM on May 14, 2018 

Here is a video showing the operational test launching of an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM on November 6, 2018:

Interestingly, as shown here, December 16, 2018 marked the 60th anniversary of Vandenberg's first nuclear-capable ballistic missile:

Minuteman III ICBMs have also been launched from F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming as shown here in this news release from 2016:

...and here:

This is far from a complete list of Minuteman III ICBM launches; launches also take place at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana.  Approximately 530 Minuteman III missiles are located at the three aforementioned bases in California, Wyoming and Montana. 

As background, the Minuteman III is built by Boeing as shown here:

Boeing has been building the Minuteman ICBM since 1958 and is currently reviewing new ICBM design options with the United States Air Force with the aim of reducing costs as shown here:

According to Breaking Defense, a brand new ICBM will cost American taxpayers $84 billion for a fleet of 400 new ICBMs but keeping the Minuteman will cost even more because of technological upgrade requirements for the aging fleet.  While Boeing would love to build the new version, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are also competing for the profits.

Just in case the Trump Administration is unable to negotiate a successful denuclearization agreement, recent developments in America's defense system are of great interest.  According to a news release from the United States Missile Defense Agency (MDA), March 25, 2019, the NMDA fired ground-based interceptor missiles from Vandenberg Air Force Base in a successful first-of-its-kind test of America's missile defense program, giving participants practice at responding to a missile attack by North Korea or Iran.  Two interceptor missiles tipped with Raytheon Company warheads were launched and both hit their target.  The intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was launched from the Reagan Test Site on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands located 4000 miles away.

Here is the press release from the Missile Defense Agency:

Here is a video showing the operation from two perspectives:

According to the MDA, the "...system worked exactly as it was designed to do and the results of this test provide evidence of the practicable use of the salvo doctrine within missile defense."

It is interesting to see the double standard when it comes to the development of missile technology.  "Bad cop" nations like North Korea and Iran are not allowed to have missiles of any type but the "good cop" nation is allowed to spend tens of billions of dollars on the development of even more effective ways to kill human beings.  The so-called rogue nations are supposed to trust that Washington will not launch its flying killing machines against them once they are defenceless against its missile technology.

Let's close with this photo:

If you see something that looks like this coming toward you in the sky, duck and cover...unless you plan to rely on America's newly tested ground-based interceptor system.

Iran's Space Program - A Stepping Stone to Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles?

While the Iranian nuclear and missile program have received relatively little coverage in recent weeks, things may well be heating up again.

Here's the latest from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Iran:

...and here's what Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had to say in response:

Mike Pompeo's latest threats follow this warning from the United States, France, the United Kingdom and Germany following the launch of the Simorgh space launch vehicle in July 2017:

Actually, Iran does have a space launch program.  In fact, Iran became the first Islamic nation and ninth nation overall to launch its own payload into space.  It's space program is a collaboration between research organizations, industry, the government and universities and may have receive foreign assistance.

Iran currently has three Space Launch Vehicle (SLV)  types:

1.) the Safir (Envoy or Ambassador)  was used to launch the OMID satellite into orbit in February 2009 with the first unsuccessful test taking place on August 17, 2008.  It is a liquid-fuelled, two-stage, 22 metre long SLV with the first stage based on a single-stage Shahab-3 medium range ballistic missile. It is designed to carry a light payload into low-earth orbit and is not considered to be capable of providing a long-range nuclear weapons capability.  The second generation Safir-1B is capable of putting a 100 kilogram payload into low earth orbit.

Here is a video showing the launching of the Safir-2 rocket:

2.) the Simorgh (Phoenix) was launched on July 27, 2017.  This liquid-fuelled, four-engine rocket, 27 metre long is capable of putting a heavier satellite weighing up to 100 kilograms into low-earth orbit.  The launch 2017 launch carried a satellite and it is believed that it exploded after launch, never achieving orbit.

Here is the launching of the Simorgh rocket in July 2017:

3.) the Kavoshgar (Explorer) was launched on February 4, 2008.  This sounding rocket is not intended for satellite launchings and, after reaching an altitude of 100 kilometres, the payload separates and returns to earth on a parachute.  The three launches of the Kavoshgar have been of questionable success. 

Iran currently has four launch sites; Emamshahr in northeastern Iran, Semnan (part of the Iranian Spacer Research Center) in northeaster Iran, Qom in western Iran and a new site located 6.5 miles west of Semnan which is designed for the Simorgh launch vehicle.  Iran launched its first entirely domestic satellite, Omid (Hope), on February 3, 2009.  The Omid is a small research satellite that is in orbit at a height of 252.7 to 384.5 kilometres.  Similar to recent protestations by Washington, the White House was concerned that Iran was threatening the security of Israel by launching Omid.

Here is an complete listing of Iran's indigenous satellites:

Obviously, like other nations around the world, Iran's domestic satellite program is important to the nation and its domestic space program allows it to continue to do research that it might otherwise not be able to do since it has been subjected to a series of international sanctions.

Here are quotes from the Congressional Research Service and the Federation of American Scientists in August 2018 on Iran's Space Launch Vehicle program and the possibility of it being used to test an intercontinental ballistic missile:

"Some have long believed Iran’s space launch program could mask the development of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with ranges in excess of 5,500 km that could threaten targets throughout Europe, and even the United States (at least 10,000 km). According to the intelligence community (IC) in 2018, “Tehran’s desire to deter the United States might drive it to field an ICBM. Progress on Iran’s space program, such as the launch of the Simorgh SLV in July 2017, could shorten a pathway to an ICBM because space launch vehicles use similar technologies.”

ICBMs share many similar technologies and processes inherent in a space launch program, but many years ago Iran outlined a long-term dedicated space launch effort (that has since slowed considerably) that is not simply a cover for ICBM development. In addition, no country has developed an ICBM from its space launch technology base; space launch programs have generally developed from military ballistic missile programs.

In 1999, the IC first assessed that Iran could test an ICBM by 2015 if it received sufficient foreign assistance, especially from a country such as China or Russia (whose support reportedly subsequently diminished in the 2000s). CRS assessed in 2012 that it was “increasingly uncertain whether Iran will be able to achieve an ICBM capability by 2015 for several reasons: Iran does not appear to be receiving the degree of foreign support many believe would be necessary; Iran has found it increasingly difficult to acquire certain critical components and materials because of sanctions; and Iran has not demonstrated the kind of flight test program many view as necessary to produce an ICBM.” Those assessments remain valid." (my bold)

It is believed that Iran's space launch and satellite program are being used by Iran's leadership to enhance its national pride and to improve its capabilities to offer its space launch services to other Middle East nations.  Since satellite launchers are complex, cumbersome, require substantial preparations before launchings and are generally not produced in large numbers, their use as a military missile is compromised.  As well, it appears that the entity that produces and launches Iran's satellites is civilian rather than military 

In closing and for your illumination, not once in United Nations Resolution 2231 is there any mention of Iran's space program, there are restrictions on the development of ballistic missiles that could be capable of delivering nuclear weapons.  It is also interesting to note that the Congressional Research Service states clearly that "no country has developed an ICBM from its space launch technology base" a conclusion that seems to have evaded Mike Pompeo who appears to be more concerned about forcing regime change in Iran than stepping back from the precipice of war.  As Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif tweeted:

"Threats engender threats while civility begets civility"

And, while we are on the topic of nuclear weaponry, let's not forget that Israel developed its t nuclear arsenal in complete secret, lied to the American government about its existence and still has not revealed its nuclear inventory.  But somehow, that's different.