My apologies
in advance for posting climate-related articles two days in a row, but recent
data from both NASA and the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSICD) are
intriguing and pretty hard for me to ignore. Both releases show that the extent of Arctic ice has reached
its lowest point in more than thirty years of measuring, an issue that bears
watching.
NASA's analysis of ice coverage shows that on
August 26th, 2012, the areal extent of Arctic ice reached a new generational
low, breaking the previous record set back on September 18th, 2007. What
is concerning about this is that melting is likely to continue for several
weeks yet, suggesting that new records could still be set since the end of the
melt season generally occurs between the middle and the end of September.
Here is a
NASA image showing how this year's ice minimum is far smaller in area than the
average minimum over the period from 1979 to 2010 as shown with the orange
line:
The areal
extent of Arctic ice on August 26th, 2012 was 1.58 million square miles, nearly
2 percent smaller than the previous record low of 1.61 million square miles
reached in September 2007. Scientists have noted that, on average, over
the last thirty years, each decade has seen a 13 percent decline in the minimum
summertime extent of sea ice cover.
NSICD
data shows that over the last six years, the six lowest ice extents
in the satellite record have occurred. Here is a graph showing the
average Arctic sea ice extent over the period from 1979 to 2000 (solid black
line), the extent in 1980 in orange, the extent in 2007 (green dashed line) and
the extent this year (solid blue line):
Normally at
this time of year, sea ice is retreating at a rate of about 15,000 square miles
per day. This year, the extent of sea ice declined very rapidly in early
August and is now retreating at an average of about 29,000 square miles per
day, nearly twice the average.
I realize that
satellite coverage of Arctic ice conditions goes back only three decades,
making it difficult to prove that current changes in ice extent are long term and
irreversible. That said, many scientists believe that the polar regions
act as the "canary in the coal mine" and that the impact of potential
climate changing anthropogenic activities may be reflected first in the Arctic
and Antarctic ecosystems.
Presently our government is getting lots of press coverage doing muscular things in the Arctic - as are Denmark, Russia and China in their press.
ReplyDeleteThey all know the Arctic will be navigable during the summer in a shockingly short time and they all want a piece of the action, whether it be resource exploitation or shipping.