The idiocracy that we have elected to represent our best interests in governments around the world have taken upon themselves the responsibility of forcing society into the complete electrification of transportation and the complete elimination of internal combustion engines. Without understanding the implications of their proclamations, this new normal is now moving into the trucking sector which is the lifeline of our society today given the reliance on trucks for the delivery of most of the goods that we consume. Research by the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) will help us understand the infrastructure needs for electrification of America's passenger and freight vehicle fleet and whether the complete elimination of gasoline and diesel fuelled vehicles is even possible. Throughout this posting, it is important to keep in mind that this analysis by ATRI includes only electrification of the American fleet; for a more thorough understanding of the issue, it is important to include the transportation electrification programs being adopted by nations around the world.
The authors of the report open with the following statistics current to the end of 2021:
1.) there were 1.5 million electric passenger cars in the United States or less than one percent of the 276 million registered cars and light trucks.
2.) at the beginning of 2022, there were less than 1500 electric medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the United States with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 10,000 pounds.
3.) there were more than 12 million freight trucks operating in the United States of which 2.925 million are heavy-duty Class 7/8 trucks used in long-haul operations. These 12 million freight trucks are almost exclusively fuelled with gasoline or diesel.
The authors state that there are three challenges to complete electrification of a national battery electric vehicle (BEV) charging infrastructure:
1.) U.S. electricity supply and demand: Currently, annual residential consumption of electricity is 1477 billion kWh, commercial consumption is 1325 billion kWh, industrial consumption is 987 billion kWh and transportation consumption is only 6 billion kWh. If the entire light vehicle fleet were electrified, it would require 1040 billion kWh annually and the medium- and heavy-duty truck fleet would require 554 billion kWh for a total of 1594 billion kWh which is more than America's residential consumption today. The complete electrification of light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles would result in an increase in annual U.S. electricity consumption of 40.3 percent to power all vehicles. Given the aging state of America's electricity infrastructure (both generation and transmission), a massive investment would be required to power electrified transportation.
Here is a map which shows full fleet electric vehicle electricity consumption as a percentage of current generation for each state:
2.) Electric vehicle production including the mining of raw materials needed for batteries, the country of origin of these batteries and raw materials and the environmental and social issue associated with BEV production: Four of the key materials used in EV batteries include cobalt, graphite, lithium and nickel. Significant increases in production of the raw materials used in EV battery manufacturing will, no doubt, result in significant negative impacts on the environment, both in emissions and in destruction of land surfaces as well as negative geopolitical and social issues.
As an example, an average long-haul truck will require the following weights of raw material for their batteries; 456 pounds of cobalt, 2501 pounds of graphite, 324 pounds of lithium and 1590 pounds of nickel. To replace the batteries for the 2.925 million truck tractors in the United States, 667,403 tons of cobalt, 3,658,929 tons of graphite, 475,162 tons of lithium and 2,325,936 tons of nickel will be required. As you can see in this table which shows the raw weight material requirements for all U.S. vehicles:
...long-haul trucks require a small fraction of the necessary key raw materials used in batteries.
To replace all U.S. internal combustion vehicles with batteries will require 29.8 years of global cobalt production, 26.8 years of global graphite production, 34.9 years of global lithium production and 6.3 years of global nickel production.
3.) Charging requirements for trucks including parking, charging and costs of charging infrastructure: Currently, there are 313,000 truck parking spaces in the United States at both public rest areas and private truck stops. Studies show that drivers spent significant non-revenue time (i.e. they aren't earning anything) looking for parking spaces, averaging 56 minutes of drive time per day from their driving limit of 11 hours per day and 14 hours of available on-duty time. It takes 5 to 12 minutes for a driver to refuel a diesel truck which will provide a driving range of 1860 miles. A truck with a 1500 kWh battery would have to spend four to five consecutive hours of recharging time per day given ideal weather (ambient temperature), maximum charging rate, battery state-of charge and battery temperature. The authors of the report calculated the following for the entire 2.925 million vehicle long-haul trucking fleet:
1.) 417.4 million kWh needed annually - 142,688 kWh per truck
2.) 585 million annual charging events averaging 3.4 hours with an average of 1.6 million charging events per day.
3.) 1,602,855 chargers will be needed if drivers use one 3.4 hour charging event per day.
Keep in mind that there are currently only 313,000 total truck parking spaces in the United States meaning that each charger would have to support at least five charging events per day which is impossible given that truck drivers would not be able to conduct their normal business operations at the same time as they precisely co-ordinate charger use with other drivers. Laws also state that truck drivers cannot move their vehicles during their mandatory 10 hour rest period meaning that a fully charged truck may have to sit at a charger until the driver goes back on duty.
I believe that is enough information to digest. As you can readily see, the complete electrification of the American fleet is a complete fallacy being promoted by idiots in government who have a limited understanding of the real world and the science and geology involved in the manufacturing of the batteries for BEVs. In particular, electrification of the freight trucking industry is a gong show that will lead to much higher prices for consumer goods and much lower profits for the trucking sector. But, then again, when did governments ever make decisions that benefitted their citizens without significant negative repercussions?
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