A Divided America - The Intersection of Religion and Politics

While I have posted on this subject in other postings, I have only recently become aware of another analysis by a nonpartisan, nonprofit research organization that looks at American society at the intersection of research, culture and public policy. In its 2019 American Values Survey, the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) provides us with an interesting snapshot into how religion impacts political persuasion and how it impacts Americans' concerns about the direction that the United States is heading.  Here are some highlights from the report.

Let's start by looking at the critical issues and how Republicans and Democrats rate the importance of each issue:

1.) Health Care - 48 percent Republicans 77 percent Democrats

2.) Climate Change - 17 percent Republicans 72 percent Democrats

3.) Foreign Interference in Elections - 26 percent Republicans 72 percent Democrats

4.) Terrorism - 63 percent Republicans 50 percent Democrats

5.) Immigration - 60 percent Republicans 49 percent Democrats

6.) Crime - 50 percent Republicans 46 percent Democrats

As time has passed, the importance of issues to Americans has changed.  Since 2016, the percentage of Americans that believe that terrorism is of concern has fallen from 70 percent to 54 percent, concerns over jobs and unemployment has fallen from 61 percent to 45 percent, concerns about crime has fallen from 54 percent to 45 percent and concerns about the federal deficit has fallen from 49 percent to 40 percent even though the federal deficit has done this:

Over the three year period from 2016, certain issues have become more important to Americans.  Americans' concern for presidential electoral fairness has grown from 41 percent to 48 percent, concerns over immigration have grown from 44 percent to 49 percent and concerns over climate change have grown from 34 percent to 49 percent, a rather significant increase.

Now, let's look at how religious affiliation impacts the top three issues for each group:

It is interesting to note that health care one of the top three issues of concern for Americans of all religious affiliations whereas the fairness of presidential elections is a top three issue of concern only for black Protestants, non-Christians and Americans with no religious affiliation.  Climate change is another key issue that is of concern only for Hispanic Catholics, non-Christians and Americans with no religious affiliation.

Here is a graphic showing Donald Trump's jobs approval and strength of support by party affiliation and religious affiliation:

As you can see, religious affiliation  has a strong impact on support for Donald Trump.  Trump is supported by 82 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning independent white evangelical Protestants who prefer him to be the Republican Party's nominee.  Trump is also supported as nominee by 75 percent of Republican and Republican-leaning white mainline Protestants and 73 percent of white Catholics.  By way of comparison, 60 percent of Catholic Republicans and Republican-leaning independents and 65 percent of religiously unaffiliated voters support Trump's candidacy.  When it comes to Donald Trump's behaviour, 52 percent of white evangelical Protestants wish Trump's speech and behaviour were like previous presidents compared to 68 percent of other Christians, 70 percent of Catholics, 72 percent of white mainline Protestants, 74 percent of Hispanic Protestants, 81 percent of black Protestants, 69 percent of non-Christian religious Americans and 85 percent of religiously unaffiliated Americans.

Donald Trump's personal conduct has also had a varying impact on his support levels by both party and religious affiliation as shown here:

Only 36 percent of white evangelical Protestants state that Trump's behaviour makes it less likely that they will support him, the lowest level of all religious groups in the United States.  Trump's behaviour gets the poorest reviews by both unaffiliated Americans and black Protestants with 76 percent and 80 percent respectively stating that his behaviour has made it less likely that they will support him.

American society is becoming increasingly polarized.  This survey by the Public Religion Research Institute shows us that religion plays a very significant role in the societal divisions that have become apparent in the United States since November 2016.

How Much Do Canadians Trust their Political Masters?

In light of all of the half-truths and outright lies that seem to be a part of Canadian elections, I thought that the time was right for a look at a poll that was completed by Forum Research Inc., looking at which institutions Canadians trusted and which ones they did not.  In the closing days of the 2015 election campaign, it's an interesting exercise to see how much we trust in our key government institutions and why Canadians are becoming increasingly cynical about Canada's political theatre.  Here we go.

A random sampling of 1694 Canadians aged 18 and over was contacted and asked how much trust they had in the following Canadian institutions:

1.) The Canadian Military

2.) The Supreme Court of Canada

3.) The Auditor General of Canada

4.) The RCMP

5.) Their Provincial Government

6.) The Prime Minister's Office

7.) The Parliamentary Budget Officer

8.) The Senate of Canada

9.) The Parliament of Canada

Here are the results in order from the highest to the lowest percentage of Canadians who have a great deal of trust in each institution:

You will notice that the Senate, Parliament, the Prime Minister's Office and the Parliamentary Budget Office are each trusted a "great deal" by less than 10 percent of the population.  In fact, here are the percent of Canadians who deem each of the three key Federal institutions either not very trustworthy or not trustworthy at all:

Parliament - 44 percent

The Prime Minister's Office - 60 percent

Senate - 63 percent

When substantially more than half of Canadians feel that both the PMO and the Senate are not trustworthy, something needs to change.

Let's focus on more detailed data for Canada's Parliament, the Prime Minister's Office and the Senate, particularly how political and religious affiliation impact respondents' level of trust in each institution.   The impact of religion on trust in government is particularly important, given that the Conservative Party base consists of a significant portion of Evangelical Christian voters.   

1.) Parliament:  Here is a table showing how trust in Parliament varies with political affiliation:

It is interesting to see that only 11 percent of declared Conservatives have a great deal of trust in Parliament and that 27 percent have either little trust or no trust at all even though Parliament is under the control of their preferred political party.

Here is a table showing the religious affiliation of the respondents and their level of trust in Parliament:

Evangelical Christians are the largest group of respondents who have some trust or a great deal of trust in Parliament (at 70 percent) with non-Christians having the lowest level of both trust and some trust at only 47 percent.  The high general level of trust in Parliament among Evangelical Christians is not particularly surprising, given that they make up a significant portion of the base of the Conservative Party of Canada.

2.) Prime Minister's Office:  Here is a table showing how trust in the Prime Minister's Office varies with political affiliation:

It's not surprising to see that the lack of trust in the PMO is by far the lowest among Conservatives at only 21 percent compared to between 67 and 80 percent for respondents who identified themselves as Liberals, NDP, Green or BQ.    The percentage of Canadians by political affiliation that have a great deal of trust in the PMO ranges from 2 percent for the NDP to 28 percent for Conservatives.

Once again, we can see that there is a wide variation in the level of trust in the PMO based on religious affiliation:

Again, Evangelical Christians form the largest group of respondents who have some trust or a great deal of trust in the PMO (at 55 percent) compared to only 39 percent for those respondents that are Catholics.  Despite Evangelical support of the PMO, a significant 39 percent have little or no trust at all in the Harper PMO.

3.) The Senate:  Here is a table showing how trust in the Senate varies with political affiliation:

Political affiliation seems to have relatively little impact on one's level of trust in the Senate; those who have no trust or not very much trust range from a low of 58 percent for Green Party affiliates to a high of 69 percent for NDP affiliates.  Let's just say that trust in Canada's Senate is pretty low no matter what respondents' political preferences were, something that should be of no surprise to anyone.

Here is a table showing the religious affiliation of the respondents and their level of trust in the Senate:

Evangelical Christians form the largest group of respondents who have some trust or a great deal of trust in the Senate (45 percent) compared to only 32 percent for both Catholics and Protestant Christians.  Obviously, Evangelical Christians also form the smallest group of respondents who have very little or no trust in the Senate at only 45 percent compared to a maximum of 63 percent for Protestant Christians.

This survey is quite interesting, showing how the level of trust in Canada's Parliament and Senate as well as the Prime Minister's Office varies with both political and religious affiliation.  It is not terribly surprising that Canada's key political institutions are seen to be untrustworthy by a substantial majority of Canadians, even among Conservative voters.  The reasons behind this untrustworthiness has been evident throughout the 2015 election; Canadians are growing tired of being repeatedly lied to by the rather poor choices that we have in the current and recent election cycles, a fact that is reflected in dropping voter turnout.

How Liberal and Conservative are Americans?

Updated June 2016

In a very interesting twist, a recent poll by Pew shows how American's views on social issues has changed over the past 15 years.  While both sides of the political spectrum seek to appeal to their traditional bases, this poll suggests that the political leaning of the United States as a whole may be evolving.

Here is the first question in the poll:

"Thinking about social issues, would you say your vies on social issues are very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal or very liberal?"

For the first time in Gallup records dating back to 1999, the number of very conservative and conservative respondents and liberal and very liberal respondents was tied, each coming in at 31 percent with moderates coming in at 33 percent.  Here is a graphic showing the results of the same polling question back to 1999 showing how the share of social liberals has grown and the share of social conservatives has declined:

In the latest annual poll, 5 percent of Americans declared themselves as very conservative, down from a recent high of 9 percent (in 2009, 2010 and 2012).  Twenty-six percent of Americans declared themselves as conservative, down from a peak of 33 percent in 2009, 33 percent declared themselves as moderate, down from a peak of 39 percent in 2005, 21 percent declared themselves liberal, down from a peak of 23 percent in 2011 and 10 percent declared themselves as very liberal, tied with 2014 for the highest percentage in the past 15 years.  The percentage of very liberal Americans is up significantly from its lows of 4 percent in both 1999 and 2003.

Here is an interesting graphic that looks at the percentage of Republicans and Republican leaners who  describe themselves as conservative, moderate or liberal on social issues:

It is interesting to see that the 53 percent of Republicans that describe themselves as social conservatives is the lowest since 2001, well below the peak of 67 percent back in 2009, this, despite the Republican Party's strong objections to the Obama Administration.

Pew explains that these changes in the degree of social liberalism are mainly a result of an increasing number of Democrats who describe themselves as liberal rather than moderate and likely reflects the shift of Democrat attitudes on social economic and political issues further toward the left as we see on this graphic:

Changes in social liberalism are evident in how Americans feel about issues like same-sex marriage (60 percent approval in 2015 compared to 27 percent in 1996) as shown on this graphic:

...the legalization of marijuana with 51 percent approval in 2015 compared to 34 percent in 2004 and the impact of immigrants on the United States as shown on this graphic:

It is believed that these shifts are due to changing demographics.  As an older, more conservative demographic cohort passes on to their great reward in the skies and younger, more socially liberal Americans replace them, attitudes have morphed.  This change will have a significant impact on the 2016 election cycle as candidates adjust their platforms to appeal to a more socially liberal electorate.  At the very least, this swing in the political winds will have a particular impact on Republican candidates who will find themselves needing to be somewhat less strident about their conservative social stance if they want to appeal to a broader audience that has become more socially liberal.

America's Political One Percent of the One Percent

A recent analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics and the Sunlight Foundation looks at the mega-donors from the 2014 election cycle, a cycle which broke the record as the most expensive midterm elections in U.S. history.  These 31,976 donors who represent the one percent of the one percent (or 0.01 percent) who dwell among us were responsible for donating $1.18 billion in disclosed donations to the federal political machine during the latest election cycle.  This amounted to 29 percent of all fundraising that political committees disclosed to the FEC in 2014, a larger portion of the total amount raised during the entire cycle than in either the 2010 and 2012 elections as shown on this graphic:

The median contribution of the one percent of the one percent was $14,750 with the largest single donor giving more than $73 million.  Five dozen of these donors gave more than $1 million and three individuals contributed more than $10 million each.  The distribution of donors by size of donation has also changed since 2010; back then, only 17 donors contributed $500,000 or more and only nine donors contributed more than $1,000,000.  In the 2014 cycle, there were 135 donors that contributed $500,000 or more and 63 donors that contributed more than $1 million.

Here is a list of the top 15 donors and how much they donated for the 2014 midterm elections:

In general, who are the political one percent of the one percent?

According to Open Secrets, they are:

1.) obviously not average American voters.  They tend to be corporate executives, investors, lobbyists and lawyers and are clustered in a few metropolitan zip codes in the New York City and San Francisco areas.

2.) mainly male - of the 31,976 donors, 22,978 or 71.9 percent were male and 7,813 or 24.4 percent were female with 1,185 being of "undetermined gender".  Here is a table showing a breakdown of donor gender and political leaning:

Obviously, men are heavily over-represented among donors.  According to Open Secrets, 55 percent of women donated to liberal-leaning causes and candidates whereas 55 percent of men donated to conservative-leaning groups and candidates.

3.) a significant portion of the one-percent of the one-percent work in the finance, insurance and real estate (or FIRE) sectors with Wall Street maintaining its position at the top of the donor pile with individuals who worked in "securities" spending $175 million in the 2014 cycle.

Here is a table showing the top ten zip codes where the one percent of the one percent live:

Six of the top ten zip codes are in the New York City area.  Number 11 is Greenwich, Connecticut, a relatively reasonable commute to and from NYC.  Of the 50 most generous zip codes, 16 were located within one hour of New York City.

Here is a listing of the top contributors in the FIRE sector:

  

The FIRE sector had the largest portion of donors than any other sector (8177 donors) who donated a significant 31 percent of total givings by the political one percent of the one percent.  Traditionally, this sector donates more to Republicans than to Democrats with Republicans receiving 55 percent of the sector's donations between 1996 and 2004.  This changed during the 2008 cycle, probably as a result of the Democrats controlling the White House and Congress and the fact that, in the wake of their behaviour prior to the Great Recession, the FIRE sector was feeling the heat of potentially damaging legislation.

Here is a listing of the top 10 contributing industries during the latest midterm cycle:

Let's change direction for a moment and take a quick look at the top 20 contributing employers between the years 2007 and 2012.  Please note that this table also shows how much these corporations spent on lobbying and how much they received in federal government business and federal government support and their effective tax rate: 

As you can see, Goldman Sachs is right at the top of the list followed by a who's who of Wall Street companies including Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.  Just below the top 20 we find Koch Industries with total contributions of $6.4 million and total lobbying.

This analysis by the Sunlight Foundation and the Center for Responsive Politics shows us just how concentrated political power has become in America.  Their analysis also shows that 100 percent of the United States senators and representatives that were elected in 2014 received money from the one percent of the one percent with Marco Rubio receiving 54.8 percent of the total money that he raised from this tiny group of Americans.  When an insignificant fraction of the total voting public in the U.S. has such control over the nation's legislators, one can hardly say that democracy is alive and well in the United States.